If the seventh and deciding game of an NHL playoff series can be broken down into simple components, then the Toronto Maple Leafs’ chances of success Wednesday night ride on two things.
One is that the streakiest goaltender in the league, Frederik Andersen, continues the hot hand he developed after the two lopsided losses that opened the series against the Boston Bruins. That will go a long way to deciding the second important factor – keeping the Bruins’ big line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak from scoring.
While there is every reason to believe Andersen will continue his excellence in Game 7 at the TD Garden, holding the Bergeron line without a point for a third consecutive game is a far less certain proposition. But on the face of it, some of the numbers look damning.
In the Bruins’ three wins so far, the Bergeron line collectively put up 23 points and were plus-20 and Bergeron missed one of those games with an injury. In the three losses, the trio had zero points and were a total of minus-16. However, Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak also had 39 shots on goal in those games and still dominated puck possession.
And there are lots of other numbers and facts that show the Boston line – how come no one has given it a name yet? – is still as dangerous as it was in the three Bruin wins.
In the Leafs’ 3-1 win in Game 6, when the Bergeron line was double-shifted at times, it accounted for 12 of the Bruins’ 32 shots and 27 shot attempts. Bergeron ruled the faceoff circle, winning 79 per cent of his draws, 23 out of 29.
Most of all, in all three wins, Andersen had to make his most important saves against that line. In Game 3, with the Bruins pressing hard with their goaltender pulled for an extra skater and the Leafs hanging on in the final two minutes of the third period, Andersen dove backward to get the paddle of his stick on a shot by Pastrnak that was headed toward the open net. That was actually Pastrnak’s third miss in the game, with Andersen robbing him on one other occasion and the goal post doing it as well, and it preserved a 4-2 lead.
Then in Game 5, the Leafs’ most precarious high-wire act so far in the series, Andersen robbed Pastrnak in the third period, just after the Bruins scored to cut the Leafs’ lead to 4-3. The run continued in Game 6 on Monday when Andersen stole goals from Marchand twice, once with a little luck when the shot beat him but ricocheted off the goalie’s skate and wide of the net, and once with his glove. A goal on either chance would have been a back-breaker for the Leafs.
So the line between success and failure in containing the Boston threesome is razor-thin for the Leafs. No one knows this more than the three Bruins. Consider Pastrnak’s reaction when someone asked him in the wake of Monday’s loss what adjustments he had to make to resume scoring.
“Ha, I’m not going to change anything,” Pastrnak said with a derisive snort. “I keep shooting. I’m getting chances. Goalie makes saves. I think that’s a pretty stupid question.”
The problem for the Leafs is that without the home advantage of last change on Wednesday, Boston head coach Bruce Cassidy will be able to keep the Bergeron line against the Leafs’ top line of Auston Matthews, Connor Brown and Zach Hyman. It was the surprising play of Leaf centre Tomas Plekanec between Mitch Marner and Patrick Marleau that made most of the difference in containing the Bruins unit in the three wins. And, of course, Marner also led the way offensively for the Leafs.
However, once Leaf head coach Mike Babcock gave Matthews two wingers who are relentless puck-chasers – Brown and Hyman – his line played much better against Bergeron’s. The coach is expected to shuffle on the fly as much as he can on Wednesday to keep Plekanec on Bergeron but it is a boost with the Matthews line holding its own.
“Marleau and Marner have been as good as forwards as you can have in this series,” Babcock said on Tuesday. “You put [Plekanec] in there and they’ve done a nice job for us. They’ve got to do it again. Now, we’re not going to get last change and, so, we’ll see what adjustments we need to make.”
Babcock mused about dressing forward Leo Komarov, who missed the past four games with a suspected leg injury, for the deciding game. With Andreas Johnsson playing so well with Nazem Kadri and William Nylander and all four lines showing more balance than they have all season, that is a tough call for the coach.
“He’s now in a position he could go,” Babcock said of Komarov. “My big question is, it’s going fast out there and you haven’t played. I’ve got to make a decision and I’m sure I’ll have that done by [Wednesday] morning.”