The problem with having a Cinderella season one year is that the clock will inevitably strike midnight the next.
Everything that could go right for the Calgary Flames did last year. Realistically, they knew it couldn't last – or couldn't be duplicated – and the only rational reason for optimism in Calgary at the start of the year was that it had improved the personnel, wading into the trade market to land Dougie Hamilton from the Boston Bruins and free agency to sign Michael Frolik away from the Winnipeg Jets.
On paper, the Flames were a better team and so the reasoning went, the two factors – more talent, less good fortune – would theoretically cancel each other out.
It didn't work out that way. The Flames, who wrapped up the home portion of their schedule Thursday night against the equally disappointing Vancouver Canucks, were out of sync all season.
Defenceman T.J. Brodie missed the first nine games recovering from a training camp injury; Calgary was 2-7 in his absence. Brodie's regular partner, Mark Giordano, needed time to recover from off-season surgery to repair a bicep tear – he had seven goals before Christmas, 14 after. Hamilton was a square peg in a round hole until he adjusted to his new surroundings around mid-season.
Players who'd had career years last season – from Dennis Wideman to Lady Byng Trophy winner Jiri Hudler – regressed to the mean. The goaltending faltered badly and the need to acquire a bona-fide starter is the highest item on general manager Brad Treliving's to-do list.
In many ways, the Flames are cheering madly for the NHL to announce expansion plans in June, because it might start teams planning for a 2017 expansion draft in which they could only protect one goalie. All sorts of names – from Frederik Andersen (Anaheim) to Ben Bishop (Tampa), James Reimer (San Jose) to Matt Murray (Pittsburgh) – have been bandied about as possible options.
But who shakes loose and at what price remains a guessing game.
At the moment, coach Bob Hartley is freely experimenting with all kinds of lineups just because he can. There are auditions for a place on the top line alongside Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, after Hudler was moved to the Florida Panthers at the trading deadline. Sam Bennett is getting a chance to play centre, his natural position, as opposed to wing, where he started his NHL career. Brodie has switched to the left side to play with Hamilton, in the hopes that some chemistry develops there.
Among the four goalies who've dressed for the Flames this season, only Joni Ortio, a restricted free agent, has a chance to return – and even that will depend upon how aggressive the Flames are when they wade into the goalie market.
In Hudler's absence, Micheal Ferland, Joe Colborne, Hunter Shinkaruk and, even for a short time, Hamilton's older brother Freddie got a chance to play on the top line. None seem likely to stay there. Shinkaruk has a scorer's touch around the net, which he's demonstrated in his brief cameo, but it is unlikely the Flames see him as a top-six option by next season. Ferland never lived up to the promise he showed in last year's playoffs against the Canucks; he has yet to demonstrate the night-to-night consistency to play in the top-six.
Bennett, at 19, is like a lot of young centres. Getting better in the faceoff circle is a priority. Puck possession is everything and if you give it up in the faceoff circle, sometimes, it can be a long time before you get it back.
If the Flames won the draft lottery and could land a talent such as Auston Matthews, then Bennett would be a natural to shift permanently to the wing. He is also the most sought-after player when NHL teams call the Flames talking trade and given his upside would be hard to move. There is already speculation the Lightning might consider moving Bishop in the off-season, along with prospect Jonathan Drouin. To land players of that calibre would require a team to surrender a tangible asset.
As for Hartley, he is experienced enough to know that evaluations made in the final weeks of a lost season are usually suspect. With the pressure off, any number of players might look as though they belong in the NHL – only to discover they are not the answer when they start playing for keeps again next year.
It's why Hartley's experiments down the stretch are akin to throwing spaghetti against the wall to see what sticks. Changes are coming, significant ones. The Flames' roster will look a lot different next fall, no matter what fleeting positives they may unearth in these final few days of a disappointing season.
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