This is, incredibly, the 18th year of the NHL's draft lottery system, which was designed basically after the Ottawa Senators "tanked" in order to pick Alexandre Daigle in 1993.
Karma may have caught up with them there.
The lottery system is pretty complicated, but the basics are that teams can only move up a maximum of four spots and down a maximum of one spot. Only one team "wins" the lottery – everyone else moves based on the team that won.
That leaves every team with a maximum of only three different spots they can pick in. (The Toronto Maple Leafs, for example, can end up with the first, fifth or sixth overall pick.)
With the draft set to be held at TSN's studios on Tuesday night at 8 p.m., here's a run through of the percentages for all 14 non-playoff teams and where they can end up.
Teams |
Highest possible pick |
Next highest pick |
Lowest pick |
1. Columbus |
1st - 48.2% |
N/A |
2nd - 51.8% |
2. Edmonton |
1st - 18.8% |
2nd - 42% |
3rd - 39.2% |
3. Montreal |
1st - 14.2% |
3rd - 56.1% |
4th - 29.7% |
4. NY Islanders |
1st - 10.7% |
4th - 66.7% |
5th - 22.6% |
5. Toronto |
1st - 8.1% |
5th - 74.7% |
6th - 17.2% |
6. Anaheim |
2nd - 6.2% |
6th - 80.7% |
7th - 13.1% |
7. Minnesota |
3rd - 4.7% |
7th - 85.4% |
8th - 9.9% |
8. Carolina |
4th - 3.6% |
8th - 89% |
9th - 7.4% |
9. Winnipeg |
5th - 2.7% |
9th - 91.8% |
10th - 5.5% |
10. Tampa Bay |
6th - 2.1% |
10th - 94% |
11th - 3.9% |
11. Washington* |
7th - 1.5% |
11th - 96.1% |
12th - 2.4% |
12. Buffalo |
8th - 1.1% |
12th - 97.6% |
13th - 1.3% |
13. Dallas |
9th - 0.8% |
13th - 98.7% |
14th - 0.5% |
14. Calgary |
10th - 0.5% |
N/A |
14th - 99.5% |
Just to be clear, that's the full range of possibilities for every team, so Montreal, for instance, can only wind up with the first, third or fourth pick.
Meanwhile, the teams on the low end there, like Calgary, are almost guaranteed to stay where they finished the year. Only three teams ranked beyond the top five, including the Devils a year ago, have "won" the lottery and moved up.
*- pick acquired from Colorado