Tampa Bay Lightning (108 points, fifth overall) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (102 points, seventh overall)
Tagline: A series of three S's: Speed, skill, scoring
Offence
Where to begin? Well, these are the two most dynamic teams in the league, with dynamic weapons at least six forwards deep and sprinkled on the blueline. The Blackhawks stars – Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Marian Hossa et al – are bigger household names than Tampa’s simply because Chicago has been deep in the postseason so often (five final fours in seven years) and had their story told year after year.
That type of mythmaking is coming for the Lightning, with Tyler Johnson in particular getting his due in these playoffs. But Nikita Kucherov – with 19 points in 20 playoff games, fourth in NHL scoring – has the potential to be a small, elusive superstar somewhat like Kane, despite not having that first overall pick pedigree. Ondrej Palat could be their Hossa type: a terrific two-way presence on the wing. And there are several overlooked support pieces like Harvard grad Alex Killorn, who leads all Tampa forwards in ice time.
And we haven’t even gotten to Steven Stamkos, who has become more of a factor the longer the postseason has progressed.
If Chicago has an edge here, it’s when you get into forwards seven through 12, with the potential for someone like Teuvo Teravainen to breakout. But their depth guys haven’t exactly been lighting it up this postseason, and the Lightning were the NHL’s highest scoring team during the season for a reason. Firepower shouldn’t be a problem.
Edge: None.
Defence
One team is using seven defencemen a lot of nights. The other is using four. If this series turns into a war of attrition, perhaps that favours the Lightning, but otherwise, Chicago’s big quartet of Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya will be hard to bet against with how they’ve managed the load to date.
Tampa’s top pair of Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman (when they’ve been together) can be as good as what the Blackhawks offer, but after that it gets uncertain, and coach Jon Cooper has had to rely on a hodgepodge of combinations. So far, he hasn’t trusted any of his other D with 20 minutes a game, despite having veterans like Matt Carle and Braydon Coburn.
The reality is this will be a different series with or without the two Swedes – Hedman and/or Stralman – on the ice and that obviously works in Chicago’s favour. Even if their third pair guys don’t inspire confidence, their forwards back pressure with the best in the league and coach Joel Quenneville tends to get a lot of the matchups he wants.
Edge: Blackhawks.
Goaltending
There hasn’t been a lot separating Ben Bishop and Corey Crawford all year. Entering the final, their numbers are nearly identical (.920 save percentage versus .919), and they’ve both had their ups and downs.
Crawford has been seeing more rubber per 60 minutes, but the Blackhawks have had the much tougher road through the best division in hockey and Western Conference, having to beat three pretty good teams in Nashville, Minnesota and Anaheim.
The Lightning, meanwhile, are coming off series wins against two teams that rely very heavily on goaltending (Montreal and New York) and are likely to have a much tougher time suppressing shots against this Chicago offence. Both clubs were elite possession teams this season, but the Blackhawks have been far more consistent on that front in these playoffs. So expect Big Ben to be busier.
Edge: None.
Coaching/systems
Again, it’s experience against inexperience here. Coach Q is one of the NHL’s winningest coaches of all time, trailing only legends Scotty Bowman and Al Arbour, and has remarkable composure under fire. He’s had a couple minor questionable calls – sitting Teravainen at points in Round 3, for one – but his reading of the opposition and adaptations during the series against the Ducks was a big part of what helped them pull out the Game 7 win. He’s a matchup maestro, and there are holes to exploit here.
On the other bench, Cooper is a great example of the new generation of player-friendly types coming out of the AHL, but he has been outcoached at times during Tampa’s run and will need to better adjust in the face of the adversity they’ll surely face here.
Edge: Blackhawks.
Overall
The NHL’s West was better than the East again this year, but because of teams on the rise like Tampa, that gap has narrowed. This is a textbook case of new guard versus old guard, too, even if Chicago’s stars are, for the most part, still in their prime. The Blackhawks entered the postseason as the oldest team; the Lightning are one of the youngest to play for a championship since the 1980s Oilers dynasty.
Most would side with a veteran team in that situation, especially after watching them demolish the Ducks in Game 7 on the weekend.
More than just experience, however, the Blackhawks have beaten tougher teams and looked better doing it. They’re the reasonable choice here for a host of reasons, with Toews’s ability to take over games at the top of that list. Barring an unbelievable series from Bishop, or a brutal meltdown from Crawford, they have a very solid shot at becoming only the second team since Edmonton 25 years ago to win three Stanley Cups in a six year span.
But Tampa is no pretender, and this shouldn’t be a short series.
Prediction: Chicago in six.
Mirtle record to date: 9-5 (6-0 in series with Tampa or Chicago)