Goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff #34 of the Calgary Flames watches the puck go wide as Justin Williams #14 of the Los Angeles Kings looks for the rebound in the third period during their NHL game at Staples Center on March 21, 2011 in Los Angeles, California. The Kings defeated the Flames 2-1 in shootout overtime.Victor Decolongon
At some point in every close playoff race, the arithmetic becomes as daunting a challenge as the task of winning games on the ice. The Calgary Flames are at that point right now - and the math doesn't look too good.
The Flames play the latest in a series of must-win games Wednesday against the Sharks in San Jose, after earning just single points in each of the past two matches - an overtime loss to the Ducks in Anaheim, followed by a shootout loss to the Los Angeles Kings.
At another time of year, when the points weren't so critical and the race wasn't as close, those results would probably pass muster. Not great, but okay.
Unhappily, Anaheim and Los Angeles represent two of the six teams they must overtake in order to qualify for NHL postseason play. Against a conference opponent, immersed in the closest playoff race in recent memory, it was not the time to leave points on the table.
It would be one thing if the Flames were ninth in the Western Conference and needed only one team to fade down the stretch so they could perhaps catch and pass it. They need it to happen to two teams.
Going into NHL action Tuesday, the gap between the No. 6 Chicago Blackhawks and the No. 10 Flames was just a single point, with three teams including Calgary bunched at 85 points, two others at 86, the No. 5 Kings at 88 and the Phoenix Coyotes alone in fourth at 89. The problem is Calgary had just seven games remaining, while Dallas, Anaheim and Chicago all had 10, Nashville and L.A. had nine and Phoenix eight.
For a time, the Ducks looked particularly vulnerable, given they embark on a tough three-game road trip starting Wednesday in Dallas that also takes them to Nashville and Chicago - three equally desperate teams, all immersed in the same playoff race. They could conceivably lose all three.
Nor does the schedule do Anaheim any favours. It plays back-to-back three times in the final three weeks (Dallas and Nashville; San Jose and Dallas, and then a home-and-home with L.A. on the final weekend of the season). Also, Calgary gets one more crack at beating the Ducks at home in a week's time.
Anaheim looked as if it would have issues when starting goalie and Vézina Trophy candidate Jonas Hiller went down with vertigo and dizziness almost a month ago, but their pick-ups - Dan Ellis and Ray Emery - have been serviceable. (Emery, the former Ottawa Senators goalie, was the league's No. 2 star of the week.)
So maybe Anaheim is one team that could be caught.
Dallas? Unlikely.
The Stars finish up against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Colorado Avalanche (twice) and then the Minnesota Wild - all dead in the playoff race and not playing well very to boot. It is hard to imagine the Stars on the outside looking in.
Same goes for Phoenix, which has five games in a row at home starting Tuesday (St. Louis Blues, Columbus, San Jose, Dallas and Colorado). The hardest part of the Coyotes schedule comes right at the end - a home-and-home with the Sharks, but at that point, they should be firmly in the playoff mix and perhaps the two games will determine first place in the division and the No. 3-overall seed.
Nashville won its last two games in dramatic fashion and gets the Edmonton Oilers at home Tuesday. The Preds play seven of their last nine at home, and finish with three fading squads: Atlanta Thrashers, Columbus and St. Louis. For a team that prides itself on taking nothing for granted, and rarely losing against opponents it should defeat, it would take a major reversal of recent form for the Preds to go off the rails.
Surprisingly, that leaves only the Blackhawks, the defending Stanley Cup champions, as a team that might be overcome. Chicago has an Original Six back-to-back test coming up (Detroit Red Wings, Boston Bruins); must travel to Montreal to face the Canadiens and then play St. Louis at home the next night; and then finish with a home-and-home series against the Red Wings. Tough sledding there - and it may be even tougher if they have to play without Patrick Sharp (knee) for any length of time.
Historically, the Flames and Sharks have had some epic battles, especially since the Miikka Kiprusoff trade heist of almost eight years ago. It would behoove Kiprusoff - 13-10-3 against his former team - to conjure up some of his magic again Wednesday and steal a victory.
Because, with one more regulation loss, it won't matter how you do the math. It just isn't going to add up to a playoff spot.