British study says smoking rates plunged during spring lockdown

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As lockdowns sweep across Europe and Canadians brace for more restrictions to stop the spread of COVID-19, a team of British researchers has found a silver lining in the tougher measures: Smoking rates have plummeted.

A study by scientists at University College London (UCL) showed that the number of smokers who quit more than doubled during Britain’s lockdown last spring. Nearly 40 per cent of smokers tried to kick the habit during the lockdown, up from 29 per cent before the pandemic. Of those who attempted, 8.8 per cent succeeded. That compared with 4.1 per cent before the lockdown.

“The odds of quitting were 2.63 times higher and the odds of attempting to quit were 1.56 times higher after [the lockdown started] compared with before,” the study concluded.

“It’s possible that the pandemic made smokers more aware of their health – in particular, their respiratory health – and prompted them to quit,” said Sarah Jackson, a behaviour scientist at UCL who co-authored the study. “The lockdown restrictions might have also encouraged quitting. For many people, daily routines changed dramatically with the introduction of stay-at-home guidance and reduced social contact.” Dr. Jackson added that researchers will now have to determine whether the abstention will last.

Similar studies have yet to be done in Canada but Rob Cunningham, a senior policy analyst for the Canadian Cancer Society, said lockdown restrictions had entrenched smoking habits in some and hindered them in others. For example, he said working from home had increased opportunities for some people to smoke, but it had also encouraged others to cut down if they have children in the house. Closing bars and restaurants had also lead some smokers to cut back, but others used the extra cash to buy more cigarettes.

“There are a lot of things going in both directions,” he said.

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The British study used data from UCL’s Smoking Toolkit Study, which consists of a series of monthly surveys that track the smoking habits of around 1,700 people in England. The researchers compared survey responses for the months between April, 2019, and February, 2020, with April, 2020, the first full month of the lockdown.

The results were in line with another analysis of the UCL tracking data by Britain’s Action on Smoking and Health, or ASH. It found that one million people across Britain had stopped smoking between April and June, the duration of the first lockdown.

Smoking rates have been in steady decline in Britain for more than a decade; around 15 per cent of the population currently smokes. But anti-smoking activists have seized on COVID-19 to encourage more people to stop. ASH has launched a new advertising campaign that highlights “smoking-related illnesses which have been linked to worse outcomes from COVID-19.”

There are some signs that cigarette sales have held up globally during the pandemic. A recent market update from Imperial Brands PLC, one of the world’s largest cigarette makers, said demand for its products had increased in the past few months. “Consumers appear to have allocated more of their spend to tobacco,” the company said. “This has resulted in better-than-expected volumes, driven by improved volume trends in several key European markets and in the U.S.”

Whether smokers are more at risk from COVID-19 remains unclear. In theory smokers should be vulnerable to the virus since it attacks the respiratory system. But several countries have reported a lower prevalence of active smokers among hospitalized patients.

In China, for example, while 27 per cent of the population smokes, they make up just 6.5 per cent of the people in hospital with COVID-19, according to a study by researchers from the University of Patras, Greece. In New York City, just 5.1 per cent of those hospitalized were smokers, even though 13.7 per cent of the population uses tobacco, according to research from the New York-based Northwell COVID-19 Research Consortium. Similar findings have been found in France and Italy.

Researchers in Europe are examining whether nicotine acts as a kind of barrier to the virus since both bind to the same cell receptors in the body’s upper airways. Scientists are trying to find out if nicotine blocks the virus from attaching to the receptors and infiltrating cells. They plan to use nicotine patches to see if they help the body stop COVID-19.

However, many researchers have urged caution about these studies. They argue that the “smoker’s paradox,” where smokers are somehow protected from infection, may be overblown. “As of now, the data supporting smoker’s paradox claims are limited and questionable,” said a recent article in the British Medical Journal, which reviewed various studies. “Even if smoking did offer a protective effect in COVID-19, this is unlikely to outweigh the numerous proven adverse health effects of smoking.”

Mr. Cunningham of the Canadian Cancer Society agreed and said the pandemic had given smokers an added incentive to ditch the habit. “It’s always a good time to quit,” he said. “But with COVID there’s never been a better time to quit because there are further health risks and negative health outcomes for people who smoke and get COVID.”

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