The European elections: Why they matter in the age of populism

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Europe goes to the polls later this month. With the rise of the populist, Euroskeptic parties, this parliamentary election matters. Here’s a guide to what’s happening and what’s at stake.

What are the European Union elections, and why is this year’s edition not expected to be the usual bore-a-thon?

Every five years, the EU holds parliamentary elections. They are the second-biggest elections in the world, after India’s, and will be held over three days, ending May 26. But there is less “mass” in this exercise in mass democracy than you might think. Voter turnout has fallen steadily since the first EU election in 1979, and reached a low of 43 per cent in 2014, partly because the results have been fairly predictable – the traditional centrist parties would come out on top – and partly because many voters consider the European Parliament a distant and only marginally useful beast, so why bother voting? This election promises to be different. The populist and nationalist Euroskeptic parties, such as Italy’s League to France’s National Rally, have gone from feeble to formidable players in many of the EU’s 28 member states and some polls say they are poised to trigger a political earthquake in typically placid Brussels.

What does the European Parliament actually do?

The Parliament is the EU’s only directly elected institution and comprises 751 members, known as MEPs. It started life as little more than a talking shop, in 24 official languages, although English, German and French are the main working tongues. Today, it is more powerful than ever and passes, or rejects, legislation proposed by the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm. The Parliament has enormous power in some big policy areas (trade in the single market, environment, data protection and immigration, to name a few) but is largely absent from other areas, such as foreign policy and taxation, which remain the turf of the national governments. Among the Parliament’s recent big wins were the fairly robust data-privacy laws, the cap on mobile-phone charges throughout the EU, eliminating extortionate roaming charges and approving CETA, the Canada-EU free-trade agreement. It has been far less effective in other areas, such as asylum reform.

Historically, who has won the elections?

In the classic era of liberal democracy, it was the traditional – and stable – mainstream centre-right and centre-left parties that dominated the Parliament, almost perfectly reflecting the national tallies, through their grand coalition. But as Roger Eatwell and Matthew Goodwin noted in their 2018 book, National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy, that era seems to be ending. They wrote: “Many people are no longer strongly aligned to the mainstream. The bonds are breaking. This de-alignment is making political systems across the West far more volatile, fragmented and unpredictable than at any point in the history of mass democracy.” This year’s election is expected to reinforce voters’ tighter embrace of populist, Euroskeptic parties which, broadly speaking, want a “Europe of nations,” not a Europe that keeps eating into national sovereignty.

Which are the populist parties and what is their agenda?

Almost every EU country has a populist, Euroskeptic party of some significance – they are the gatecrashers which stand an excellent chance of denying the centrist bloc its parliamentary majority for the first time in four decades. The most powerful Euroskeptic parties are in Italy, Hungary, Germany, Austria, Poland, Slovakia, Finland and Denmark, where they are either in government or play big roles in opposition. While a few of the small populist parties want to ditch both the EU and the euro, most of the big populist parties want to keep the EU nominally intact, mostly as a common market, while diluting the power of the EU Parliament and Commission. For instance, they want to set their own asylum policies and scrap the fiscal rules that put caps on national budget deficits and debt levels. They reject the EU’s core principle of “ever closer union,” and are wary of globalization and the power of the elites.

What do the polls say?

Every poll says that the European Parliament’s two biggest political groupings, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), will take big hits in the election, together losing more than 90 seats, equivalent to about 12 per cent of their 2014 haul. A few of the populist parties are on course for enormous gains. The populist of the moment is Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, Leader of the League party, which rules Italy in partnership with the anti-establishment Five Star Movement. The polls say the League will win 32 per cent of the Italian vote in the EU election, almost double what it scored in the 2018 Italian national election. In France, Marine Le Pen’s right-wing, anti-migrant National Rally (formerly National Front), at 22 per cent, is polling slightly ahead of French President Emmanuel Macron’s pro-Europe En Marche party.

If there is an election surprise, what might it be?

Steve Bannon, U.S. President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager and chief strategist, now adviser to some of Europe’s populist parties, has predicted that the populist and nationalist parties could take 50 per cent of the vote, well more than double their 2014 score. That would indeed be a big surprise. If anything, they are likely to fare a bit worse than the polls are predicting. Why? Because the migration crisis is easing – Mr. Salvini has stopped the charity rescue boats from docking at Italian ports. Since most populist parties are also anti-migrant parties, their allure might be dropping somewhat.

How has Brexit, or lack thereof, affected the EU election?

The last thing British Prime Minister Theresa May wanted was Britain’s participation in the EU election. But since her Brexit deal is still elusive, Britain will legally have to field EU candidates, because it’s still an EU member. It’s a truly bizarre scenario, with British parties campaigning to get elected in a Parliament that 52 per cent of British voters rejected in the 2016 Brexit referendum. Even more bizarrely, Britain’s EU hater-in-chief, Nigel Farage, has just formed the Brexit Party and it’s already on top of the polls, at 30 per cent. If Brexit does happen later this year, Britain’s 73 MEPs will get the bum’s rush out of Brussels, with their seats allocated to other countries.

Who are some of the characters to watch in the election?

Billionaire former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, Europe’s most prosecuted politician, plans to enter the EU Parliament, promising a “formidable comeback,” despite the witness-bribing charges he faces in an Italian court. He’s 82 and running on his old Forza Italia party ticket. Former bad-boy Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, creator of the new, anti-neoliberal Democracy in Europe Movement 2025, is running in Germany for a parliamentary seat. Caio Giulio Cesare Mussolini, 51, the great-grandson of Benito Mussolini, the Fascist Italian dictator, is going for a parliamentary seat with the far-right Brothers of Italy party. The former naval officer denies he’s a Fascist, but insists he will “never be ashamed of my family.” In a media appearance this week in Rome, he claimed he was not against immigration, but that Europe needed to stop migrant “invasions.”

European Elections seat projection

751 total seats as of May 9, 2019

Party (full name) Ideology

EPP (European People’s Party group) Centre right

169

S&D (Progressive Alliance of Socialists & Democrats)

Social democracy

149

ALDE/En Marche (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats

for Europe & Macron’s En Marche) Liberalism

98

New/NI (New and unaffiliated parties)

75

Salvini’s Alliance (Salvini’s European Alliance

of People and Nations (ex-ENF)) Right populism

71

ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists) Conserv.

63

Greens/EFA (Greens - European Free Alliance)

Green politics/regionalism

55

GUE/NGL (European United Left–Nordic Green Left)

Democratic socialism

49

M5S (Five Star Movement and allies) Populism

22

JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL

SOURCE: politico.eu (via pollofpolls)

European Elections seat projection

751 total seats as of May 9, 2019

Party (full name) Ideology

EPP (European People’s Party group) Centre right

169

S&D (Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats)

Social democracy

149

ALDE/En Marche (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats

for Europe & Macron’s En Marche) Liberalism

98

New/NI (New and unaffiliated parties)

75

Salvini’s Alliance (Salvini’s European Alliance

of People and Nations (ex-ENF)) Right populism

71

ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists) Conservative

63

Greens/EFA (Greens - European Free Alliance)

Green politics/regionalism

55

GUE/NGL (European United Left–Nordic Green Left)

Democratic socialism

49

M5S (Five Star Movement and allies) Populism

22

JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL

SOURCE: politico.eu (via pollofpolls)

European Elections seat projection

751 total seats as of May 9, 2019

Party (full name) Ideology

EPP (European People’s Party group) Centre right

169

S&D (Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats) Social democracy

149

ALDE/En Marche (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats

for Europe & Macron’s En Marche) Liberalism

98

New/NI (New and unaffiliated parties)

75

Salvini’s Alliance (Salvini’s European Alliance

of People and Nations (ex-ENF)) Right populism

71

ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists) Conservative

63

Greens/EFA (Greens - European Free Alliance) Green politics/regionalism

55

GUE/NGL (European United Left–Nordic Green Left) Democratic socialism

49

M5S (Five Star Movement and allies) Populism

22

JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: politico.eu (via pollofpolls)