More below • Visual guide: Paths to power in Congress, explained
Joe Biden has defied expectations of an unambitious presidency.
Domestically, he’s pushed through major legislative packages on building infrastructure and tackling the pandemic. Internationally, he’s led a coalition of democratic countries helping Ukraine fend off Russia’s invasion. On climate change, he’s passed a sweeping law promoting green energy.
When he moved into the Oval Office last year, Mr. Biden had a portrait of Franklin Delano Roosevelt hung on the wall across from his desk, signalling his aspirations for a significant expansion of the social safety net and a fight against fascism. But those dreams may soon founder.
If the polls are correct, Republicans look poised to win control of the House of Representatives in Tuesday’s midterm elections and may also take the Senate, making hay from perceptions of a faltering economy, persistently high crime and rising undocumented immigration.
A bolstered opposition would almost certainly block the rest of the President’s social policy agenda, including strengthening healthcare coverage, instituting paid parental leave and codifying abortion rights. They would gain powerful leverage over the federal budget.
If that does come to pass, in his term’s second half Mr. Biden will likely have to rely more heavily on executive orders and turn to areas – whether foreign affairs or environmental regulations – where he can act independently of Congress.
But even with those, Republicans have made rumblings in recent weeks about throwing up roadblocks, including by throttling back military aid to Ukraine.
What’s more, many of the party’s candidates continue to falsely claim Donald Trump won the 2020 election, setting the stage for a rancorous and conspiracy-tinged Congress that threatens to hijack any attempt at crafting serious policy.
The 46th President of the United States may need all of the political acumen accumulated over a half-century in government to keep his head above water and his legacy from drowning.
“This is a genuine inflection point in American history,” Mr. Biden said at a campaign event in Florida this week. “How we decide the next four years is going to determine what this country looks like 40 years from now.”
The numbers certainly don’t look good for the President. His approval rating, which began its drop more than a year ago, currently sits at 42 per cent, according to a Monmouth University poll. In the last 25 midterm elections, the incumbent president’s party lost congressional seats in all but three.
It hasn’t helped that the country has for months been dealing with runaway inflation, which the Biden administration initially insisted wasn’t a serious problem.
Last year’s disastrous evacuation from Afghanistan marred Mr. Biden’s self-image as a competent operator. And he also couldn’t get some of his most significant policies past Congress, where conservative Democrats torpedoed free community college tuition, child tax credits and voting rights protections.
It is unclear, meanwhile, whether the Supreme Court overturning 50 years of abortion protections will be enough to motivate Democrats to go to the polls in higher numbers than a typical low-turnout midterm.
“Biden is not popular, and neither is the Supreme Court, but that’s usually taken a back seat to concerns about the economy,” said J. Miles Coleman of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, which maintains a blog that sets odds for election races. It currently predicts a slender Republican majority in the House and rates the Senate a toss-up.
Mr. Coleman compared the current situation to the 1946 “beefsteak election,” when midterm voters gave Republicans a congressional majority to punish Democratic president Harry Truman for a spike in the price of meat. “Here we are, decades later, talking about the price of groceries. What’s really changed?”
Still, those who have worked with Mr. Biden say he has an uncanny knack for cutting legislative deals and may still find laws he can get Congress to agree to, even with a Republican majority.
Victoria Nourse, a Georgetown University law professor who was on Mr. Biden’s staff during both his time as a senator and vice-president, said some otherwise recalcitrant Republicans will be willing to co-operate with him if there are obvious benefits for their constituents, such as new jobs or building projects.
In this way, Mr. Biden may be able to get legislators to back some of his priorities, such as constructing better infrastructure for electric vehicles. Ms. Nourse pointed to this past summer’s CHIPS Act, bipartisan legislation that aims to improve domestic capacity to make semiconductors and move supply chains out of China, as an example of this dynamic at play.
“Biden should never be underestimated on his ability to legislate. He has legislated six to eight important things that nobody thought he could,” she said. “When states and districts want things, their representatives respond. They’ll do things to get re-elected even if they’re saying something completely different in the press. Biden understands that incentive.”
Another move for Mr. Biden, if he loses Congress, would be to focus on things he can do by fiat.
Through executive orders, he can unilaterally put in place measures that address the climate crisis, such as tightening emissions standards for buildings and cars, or curbing development of new fossil-fuel infrastructure. He can use federal funding through the Justice Department to move forward police or criminal justice reform. And he also has some power to go further on gun control. Foreign policy, meanwhile, is mostly within the president’s remit.
His most visible foreign policy, however – supporting Ukraine – has relied heavily on channeling military aid to Kyiv, some US$17.5-billion since the start of his presidency, which he must have Congress on board to continue. There are indications this rare point of bipartisan consensus to fight back against international authoritarianism may be at risk.
Kevin McCarthy, the Republican House leader who would likely become the next Speaker if his party wins a majority, mused last month that the U.S. would no longer “write a blank cheque to Ukraine.” Some of the party’s most prominent candidates have made similar comments: Ohio Senate hopeful J.D. Vance said earlier this year, “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine.”
Alexander Downes, an international relations professor at George Washington University, said he expects Mr. Biden will still be able to find enough Republicans supportive of Ukraine to keep the aid flowing even if Mr. McCarthy tries to cut it off. “I don’t see a major threat to continued military and economic aid to Ukraine,” he wrote in an email.
Prof. Downes pointed to several other foreign policy areas where Mr. Biden could make progress regardless of what happens to the makeup of Congress: negotiating a revised deal with Iran to stop that country’s efforts to build nuclear weapons, setting more ambitious objectives in cutting carbon emissions, increasing military deployments in Europe and South Korea to send signals to dictators, and containing the rising power of China.
Geoffrey Henderson, a climate policy expert at Duke University, said it also augurs well for Mr. Biden that the Inflation Reduction Act, his main piece of environmental legislation, actually commands the support of a majority of Republican voters. This gives the party less incentive to attack these types of climate measures, particularly given that they include building green technology manufacturing plants in Republican districts.
“It’s really unlikely the Republicans would want to target this in the way they targeted the Affordable Care Act when there are more salient issues on which Republican voters would be less divided,” Mr. Henderson said.
Republicans holding the purse strings could, however, force tortured, marathon negotiations over budgeting and raising the U.S. debt ceiling, offering Mr. McCarthy and Mitch McConnell, the party’s Senate leader, numerous opportunities to extract concessions from the White House or push for cuts to social programs favoured by the Democrats.
Mr. Biden has been to this place before. During the Obama administration, he served as a key White House negotiator with a frequently obstinate Congress. His work helped get budgets passed and avoid government shutdowns.
“He’s not someone who thinks in zero-sum terms. He’s someone who thinks about how to get people to a win-win situation. That is true in international situations, and across party lines,” said Mara Rudman, a former national security official in both the Clinton and Obama White Houses. “He’s very good at reading people and reading situations and knowing where he wants to get to.”
One former congressional and White House aide who worked directly with Mr. Biden on legislation said his style involves getting people on opposing sides into the room together and hearing everyone out until possible trade-offs and compromises become clear.
By contrast, the ex-aide recalled, Mr. Obama’s top advisors privately admitted during his second term that they weren’t even trying to move legislation forward because they had no credibility with Congress.
The Globe is keeping this source confidential so they can speak about closed-door discussions.
Beyond blocking Mr. Biden’s mandate, the Republicans are also angling to make his life difficult by launching investigations into the business dealings of his son, Hunter, and various White House policies.
Rodell Mollineau, a Democratic political consultant, said this strategy could cut both ways. The preoccupation with litigating various grievances would make it harder for Mr. Biden to push anything through a Republican-controlled House but it could also backfire if the Republicans end up without tangible achievements to run on in 2024.
“House Republicans want to impeach somebody – they don’t even know who that would be yet – and they want to investigate Hunter Biden, the Afghanistan withdrawal, social media companies, ‘woke’ corporations,” said Mr. Mollineau, partner at Rokk Solutions, which has advised a pro-Biden campaign group. “There’s going to be a lot of noise and it makes me wonder when they’re going to have time to do any legislating.”
The election could also see a wave of election deniers sweep into Congress. Mr. Vance is only one of hundreds of candidates across the U.S. who subscribe to Mr. Trump’s lie that the last election was rigged. Similar candidates are running for governor and other positions in important swing states, raising the prospect they will try to overturn the 2024 election if results show a Republican losing again.
Other star contenders, including Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker in Georgia, are advocating for a nationwide ban on abortion, setting the stage for culture war showdowns in Congress.
Mr. Biden spent most of his political career, including the 2020 election, selling himself as a middle-of-the-road compromiser. But after taking office last year, he made clear that he aspired to a transformational presidency. Now, he may be in for a two-year struggle over the most basic tenets of American democracy ahead of the 2024 election.
At a speech in Washington, D.C.’s Union Station this week, a stone’s throw away from the U.S. Capitol, the President warned that electing “extreme MAGA Republicans” could move the country towards authoritarianism by encouraging politicians to ignore the results of any election they lose.
“Make no mistake, democracy is on the ballot for all of us,” he said. “This is a choice we can make. Disunion and chaos are not inevitable. There’s been anger before in America. There’s been division before in America. But we’ve never given up on the American experiment, and we can’t do that now.”
Paths to power in Congress, explained
Republicans are favoured to take over the House of Representatives
in the U.S. midterm elections, which would allow them to block
President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RACE RATINGS
Democrats
Republicans
Solid: 162
Solid: 188
Likely/
Lean: 31
Likely/
Lean: 23
Toss-up:
21
Toss-up:
10
Majority: 218
Total seats: 435
DEMOCRAT-HELD DISTRICTS TO WATCH
Alaska at-large district
Kansas 3rd district
Ohio 9th district
Forecast:
Toss-up
Forecast:
Toss-up
Forecast:
Lean Dem.
Mary Peltola faces two
Republicans, Sarah
Palin and Nick Begich,
in Alaska’s “ranked
choice” voting system
Sharice Davids in tight
race with Republican
Amanda Adkins after
redrawing of district
boundaries
Republican nominee
J.R. Majewski taking
on longest-serving
Congresswoman
Marcy Kaptur
Arizona 2nd district
Maine 2nd district
Oregon 5th district
Forecast:
Lean Rep.
Forecast:
Toss-up
Forecast:
Toss-up
Tom O’Halleran seeks
re-election in more
competitive district
against Republican
opponent Eli Crane
Republican Bruce
Poliquin vying to retake
his old seat against
Democratic incumbent
Jared Golden
Republican Lori
Chavez-DeRemer
in tight contest with
Democrat Jamie
McLeod-Skinner
Florida 13th district
Michigan 7th district
Virginia 2nd district
Forecast:
Likely Rep.
Forecast:
Toss-up
Forecast:
Toss-up
Anna Paulina Luna
favoured over Democrat
Eric Lynn in battle for
open seat
Michigan state senator
Tom Barrett aiming
to unseat Democrat
Elissa Slotkin
Elaine Luria faces
tough re-election battle
against Republican
Jen Kiggans
Forecasts as of Oct. 14
graphic news, Sources: Cook Political Report; Reuters; The Hill
Republicans are favoured to take over the House of Representatives
in the U.S. midterm elections, which would allow them to block
President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RACE RATINGS
Democrats
Republicans
Solid: 162
Solid: 188
Likely/
Lean: 31
Likely/
Lean: 23
Toss-up:
21
Toss-up:
10
Majority: 218
Total seats: 435
DEMOCRAT-HELD DISTRICTS TO WATCH
Alaska at-large district
Kansas 3rd district
Ohio 9th district
Forecast:
Toss-up
Forecast:
Toss-up
Forecast:
Lean Dem.
Mary Peltola faces two
Republicans, Sarah
Palin and Nick Begich,
in Alaska’s “ranked
choice” voting system
Sharice Davids in tight
race with Republican
Amanda Adkins after
redrawing of district
boundaries
Republican nominee
J.R. Majewski taking
on longest-serving
Congresswoman
Marcy Kaptur
Arizona 2nd district
Maine 2nd district
Oregon 5th district
Forecast:
Lean Rep.
Forecast:
Toss-up
Forecast:
Toss-up
Tom O’Halleran seeks
re-election in more
competitive district
against Republican
opponent Eli Crane
Republican Bruce
Poliquin vying to retake
his old seat against
Democratic incumbent
Jared Golden
Republican Lori
Chavez-DeRemer
in tight contest with
Democrat Jamie
McLeod-Skinner
Florida 13th district
Michigan 7th district
Virginia 2nd district
Forecast:
Likely Rep.
Forecast:
Toss-up
Forecast:
Toss-up
Anna Paulina Luna
favoured over Democrat
Eric Lynn in battle for
open seat
Michigan state senator
Tom Barrett aiming
to unseat Democrat
Elissa Slotkin
Elaine Luria faces
tough re-election battle
against Republican
Jen Kiggans
Forecasts as of Oct. 14
graphic news, Sources: Cook Political Report; Reuters; The Hill
Republicans are favoured to take over the House of Representatives
in the U.S. midterm elections, which would allow them to block
President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RACE RATINGS
Democrats
Republicans
Solid: 162
Solid: 188
Likely/
Lean: 31
Likely/
Lean: 23
Toss-up:
21
Toss-up:
10
Majority: 218
Total seats: 435
DEMOCRAT-HELD DISTRICTS TO WATCH
Alaska at-large district
Kansas 3rd district
Ohio 9th district
Forecast:
Toss-up
Forecast:
Toss-up
Forecast:
Lean Dem.
Mary Peltola faces two
Republicans, Sarah
Palin and Nick Begich,
in Alaska’s “ranked
choice” voting system
Sharice Davids in tight
race with Republican
Amanda Adkins after
redrawing of district
boundaries
Republican nominee
J.R. Majewski taking
on longest-serving
Congresswoman
Marcy Kaptur
Arizona 2nd district
Maine 2nd district
Oregon 5th district
Forecast:
Lean Rep.
Forecast:
Toss-up
Forecast:
Toss-up
Tom O’Halleran seeks
re-election in more
competitive district
against Republican
opponent Eli Crane
Republican Bruce
Poliquin vying to retake
his old seat against
Democratic incumbent
Jared Golden
Republican Lori
Chavez-DeRemer
in tight contest with
Democrat Jamie
McLeod-Skinner
Florida 13th district
Michigan 7th district
Virginia 2nd district
Forecast:
Likely Rep.
Forecast:
Toss-up
Forecast:
Toss-up
Anna Paulina Luna
favoured over Democrat
Eric Lynn in battle for
open seat
Michigan state senator
Tom Barrett aiming
to unseat Democrat
Elissa Slotkin
Elaine Luria faces
tough re-election battle
against Republican
Jen Kiggans
Forecasts as of Oct. 14
graphic news, Sources: Cook Political Report; Reuters; The Hill
Republicans need to pick up only one seat to win control of the
Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, which would allow them to
block much of President Joe Biden’s agenda
Democrats
Republicans
2022 SENATE RACE RATINGS
Safe
Likely
Leaning
Toss-up
Leaning
Likely
Safe
VT
Wash.
N.D.
NH
Ore.
N.Y.
Wis.
CT
S.D.
Ida.
Penn.
Iowa
Ohio
MD
Ind.
Nev.
Ill.
Utah
Colo.
Mo.
Kan.
KY
Calif.
N.C.
Okla.*
S.C.
Ark.
Ariz.
35 Total
seats up for
re-election –
14 Democrat,
21 Republican
Ga.
Ala.
La.
Fla.
Alaska
Hawaii
GEORGIA: Incumbent
Raphael Warnock in
possible tight race with
former NFL star turned
Republican candidate,
Herschel Walker
NEVADA: First Latina in
U.S. Senate, Catherine
Cortez Masto, trailing
GOP nominee and
former state attorney
general Adam Laxalt
ARIZONA: Democratic
Senator Mark Kelly
leading Republican
challenger Blake
Masters by average
of four points
OHIO: Democrat
Tim Ryan maintaining
close race against
J.D. Vance for open
seat held by retiring
Republican
PENNSYLVANIA: State
lieutenant governor
John Fetterman polling
ahead of Republican
Mehmet Oz in contest
for open seat
WISCONSIN: State
lieutenant governor
Mandela Barnes
looking to unseat
Republican incumbent
Ron Johnson
*Two seats
Data as of Oct 11, 2022
graphic news, Sources: RealClearPolitics; Reuters
Republicans need to pick up only one seat to win control of the
Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, which would allow them to
block much of President Joe Biden’s agenda
Democrats
Republicans
2022 SENATE RACE RATINGS
Safe
Likely
Leaning
Toss-up
Leaning
Likely
Safe
VT
Wash.
N.D.
NH
Ore.
N.Y.
Wis.
CT
S.D.
Ida.
Penn.
Iowa
Ohio
MD
Ind.
Nev.
Ill.
Utah
Colo.
Mo.
Kan.
KY
Calif.
N.C.
Okla.*
S.C.
Ark.
Ariz.
35 Total
seats up for
re-election –
14 Democrat,
21 Republican
Ga.
Ala.
La.
Fla.
Alaska
Hawaii
GEORGIA: Incumbent
Raphael Warnock in
possible tight race with
former NFL star turned
Republican candidate,
Herschel Walker
NEVADA: First Latina in
U.S. Senate, Catherine
Cortez Masto, trailing
GOP nominee and
former state attorney
general Adam Laxalt
ARIZONA: Democratic
Senator Mark Kelly
leading Republican
challenger Blake
Masters by average
of four points
OHIO: Democrat
Tim Ryan maintaining
close race against
J.D. Vance for open
seat held by retiring
Republican
PENNSYLVANIA: State
lieutenant governor
John Fetterman polling
ahead of Republican
Mehmet Oz in contest
for open seat
WISCONSIN: State
lieutenant governor
Mandela Barnes
looking to unseat
Republican incumbent
Ron Johnson
*Two seats
Data as of Oct 11, 2022
graphic news, Sources: RealClearPolitics; Reuters
Republicans need to pick up only one seat to win control of the
Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, which would allow them to
block much of President Joe Biden’s agenda
Democrats
Republicans
2022 SENATE RACE RATINGS
Safe
Likely
Leaning
Toss-up
Leaning
Likely
Safe
VT
Wash.
N.D.
NH
Ore.
N.Y.
Wis.
CT
S.D.
Ida.
Penn.
Iowa
Ohio
MD
Ind.
Nev.
Ill.
Utah
Colo.
Mo.
Kan.
KY
Calif.
N.C.
Okla.*
S.C.
Ark.
Ariz.
35 Total
seats up for
re-election –
14 Democrat,
21 Republican
Ga.
Ala.
La.
Fla.
Alaska
Hawaii
GEORGIA: Incumbent
Raphael Warnock in
possible tight race with
former NFL star turned
Republican candidate,
Herschel Walker
NEVADA: First Latina in
U.S. Senate, Catherine
Cortez Masto, trailing
GOP nominee and
former state attorney
general Adam Laxalt
ARIZONA: Democratic
Senator Mark Kelly
leading Republican
challenger Blake
Masters by average
of four points
OHIO: Democrat
Tim Ryan maintaining
close race against
J.D. Vance for open
seat held by retiring
Republican
PENNSYLVANIA: State
lieutenant governor
John Fetterman polling
ahead of Republican
Mehmet Oz in contest
for open seat
WISCONSIN: State
lieutenant governor
Mandela Barnes
looking to unseat
Republican incumbent
Ron Johnson
*Two seats
Data as of Oct 11, 2022
graphic news, Sources: RealClearPolitics; Reuters
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