A woman carries a bag on her back as she walks past slogans in support of President Evo Morales painted on a wall in La Paz, Bolivia, on Oct. 10, 2014.JUAN KARITA/The Associated Press
Bolivian President Evo Morales is set to be resoundingly re-elected on Sunday with polls showing he has the support of twice as many voters as all of his rivals combined.
If you take a quick look at some of the numbers coming out of Bolivia, it's not hard to understand his huge popularity. Bolivia has grown much faster over the last eight years under Mr. Morales than in any period over the past 35 years – GDP has grown by 5 per cent a year or more since he took office in 2006. Bolivia has for decades born the grim tag of "South America's poorest country," but recently overtook Paraguay to shed the label: Mr. Morales's government has reduced poverty levels by 25 per cent, and extreme poverty by almost half.
And perhaps most unusual for a poor country with high growth, Bolivia is seeing inequality levels decline. The Centre for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington shows how the poorest Bolivians are seeing their incomes rise much faster than the wealthiest.
There are other factors. Mr. Morales continues to cultivate strong personal connections with his voters: he is indigenous, as are two-thirds of Bolivians. As the son of llama farmers who had limited opportunities for education, and worked with a cocoa growers' union, he seems both trustworthy and accessible. Meanwhile, as president, he has been heavy-handed in his treatment of the opposition and the media, which also helps strengthen his bid to hold on to power. A constitution adopted since he took office actually limits presidents to two terms, but the Supreme Court obligingly ruled that since his first one was under the previous constitution, Mr. Morales could stand a third time.
But it's not hard to understand why the idea of a continued Morales government appeals to Bolivians: Before him, the country had a long history of instability, including five presidents between 2001 and 2005.
The key component in Mr. Morales's bid to change his country's fortunes is his decision to nationalize foreign energy companies. Since 2006, they have had to pay an additional 32 per cent in taxes and royalties. The nationalizations created an uproar at the time, but the data show they have done little to deter foreign investors: in fact, Bolivia now has the highest rates of foreign direct investment in Latin American.
"There's a difference in the perception of Bolivia and the reality of Bolivia – you hear about nationalizations and effect might have on business community," said Jake Johnston, a researcher with the CEPR. "What this shows is that Bolivia has been tremendously successful after nationalization – both in terms of macroeconomic growth and in attracting investment. This isn't scaring people away."
Those new revenues have greatly expanded the reach of government, Mr. Johnston added. Government spending has quadrupled in the past 10 years – Bolivia has new hospitals, schools, roads and transport systems. And the Morales government increased the minimum wage by 88 per cent, in real terms, between 2005 and 2014.
"People can see the results of those things," said Mr. Johnston. "The results on the ground are what matter for most people."