John Sainsbury is professor emeritus of History at Brock University.
Residents of Scotland have had their say on the future of the United Kingdom. Now it's the turn of the residents of Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, to weigh in.
On Thursday, they will vote in a by-election triggered by the defection of their MP, Douglas Carswell, from the governing Conservative party to the UK Independence Party (UKIP). Mr. Carswell is the candidate for the party he's just joined, and opinion polls suggest he will win handily and and become the first UKIP member to sit in the British House of Commons.
This is bad news for the Conservative party and its embattled leader David Cameron. But it would be wrong to infer from a UKIP triumph that we're witnessing a sea change in British party politics. Voters in by-elections often seize the opportunity to send a loud message to the established parties, before reverting to traditional voting habits at general election time.
By-elections in Britain, as in Canada, can become mini-referendums on the burning issues of the day. That's why a comparison between the Scottish referendum and the Clacton by-election is not far-fetched.
Scottish nationalists don't like being mentioned in the same breath as UKIP. They pride themselves on their "civic," as distinct from "tribal," nationalism, which they see as consistent with enthusiasm for the European Union (EU). UKIP supporters by contrast, are readily characterized as xenophobic "little Englanders," with a tendency to blame everything that ails Britain on its continued membership of the EU. Not surprisingly, UKIP's leader, Nigel Farage, ran into a hostile reception when he appeared in Glasgow during Scotland's referendum campaign.
Yet the Scottish National Party and UKIP have one thing in common. As Kenan Malik has pointed out in a recent blog post, both are driven by resentment and suspicion of "Westminster", which is more than a coded term for the Cameron government; it's become a metonym for a metropolitan culture of elite entitlement and aloofness that is, perhaps, as strongly resented in Clacton (a mere 100 kilometers from the capital) as it is in Glasgow.
Clacton is fertile territory for UKIP. Once a popular resort town, it's now primarily a retirement community, with one of the oldest (and whitest) electorates in the country. Created as a Parliamentary seat in 2010, Clacton returned the then Tory Douglas Carswell with a thumping majority. Now a majority of voters seem prepared to endorse his defection to UKIP.
Why has UKIP touched a chord in this sleepy seaside community? The answer is that it has a simple message that resonates powerfully with voters: namely that the Cameron government, out of elitist arrogance and lofty indifference, has handed over immigration policy to faceless EU bureaucrats thereby losing control of Britain's borders. The grim prospect is a continuing torrent of impoverished immigrants from Eastern Europe bent on stealing jobs, commiting crime, and jumping the queue for public housing.
For UKIP and its supporters, the solution is obvious: Britain must leave the EU, the sooner the better. All kinds of economic and social benefits will ensue when that happens, Mr. Farage promises.
Mr. Farage is an effective salesman. He's not everyone's cup of tea, but there's no mistaking his popular appeal. At first glance he seems an unlikely populist hero. With his penchant for tailored pinstripe suits and French cuffs, he looks every inch the successful commodities broker that he once was. Yet he has the common touch. He's often photographed with a pint of beer in his hand and a pack of cigarettes close by, exuding a cheerful and disarming matiness.
Contrast this image with photos of Mr. Cameron looking bewildered during a recent panicky visit to Clacton. It's the way he often looks when he's obliged to stray from his accustomed habitats: Westminster (the posh part), his country home in the Cotswolds, and Tuscany.
Thus far Mr. Farage's success has been at the expense of the Conservatives. But UKIP is now welcoming a few converts from the Labour party, who share UKIP's stand on immigration and are prepared to overlook its right-wing, libertarian agenda.
So what does the future hold for UKIP and Britain's place in Europe? Under pressure from UKIP and its soul mates on the Tory backbenches, Mr. Cameron has pledged to renegotiate the terms of Britain's membership of the EU, followed by a referendum on whether the country should stay or leave.
Before that happens, however, there will be a general election in 2015, when Mr. Cameron will spring his trap, pounding home the message that voting for UKIP will erode Conservative support and hand victory to the Labour party, led by the hapless Ed Miliband. Labour has no intention of holding a referendum on Europe. Ergo, if you want a referendum, Mr. Cameron will argue, you have to vote Conservative.
My prediction is that the strategy will succeed and that UKIP, having briefly driven the country's political agenda, will fade into obscurity, while the party of Benjamin Disraeli, Winston Churchill, and David Cameron marches on to an uncertain future.