When we last left Greg Selinger, he was staring down a cabinet revolt and vowing to keep his job. This weekend, the embattled Manitoba NDP Premier will learn whether he gets to.
Mr. Selinger has redefined what it means to fight on. Not many premiers would stay in office after the resignation of five top ministers, a demonstration of non-confidence the likes of which we don't often see in Canada. It takes moxie, or special powers inuring one from the pain of being rejected, to face down such an insurrection.
No, rather than resigning after last year's attempted coup, Mr. Selinger announced that he would stay on as Premier but let his name stand in a leadership contest. And so, for the past few months, he has been a provincial first minister by day and a candidate for his party's leadership at night and on weekends. He saw no conflict in performing the job he was campaigning for.
Politics is such a strange business. It was just three short years ago that Mr. Selinger led his New Democrats to the biggest majority they have ever commanded in a province they have now ruled for 16 years. Then, he reneged on a campaign promise not to raise the provincial sales tax and oh, boy, it was about as popular as a six-hour wait in emergency. The public can forgive a lot, but break a tax promise and voters will remember it for a long, long time.
Needless to say, Mr. Selinger's popularity sank like a stone, a phenomenon that always makes those inside a government caucus nervous – loyalty is a dirty word in politics. In this case, several of the Premier's most trusted allies told him the party would likely be better off with him gone. When he refused to take the hint, his attorney-general, finance and health ministers, plus a couple of others, quit cabinet. (Remarkably, they were allowed to remain in caucus.) The Premier still refused to take the hint.
It's hard to imagine how it could happen, but he could yet end up having the last laugh. The leadership race among Mr. Selinger, former cabinet minister Steve Ashton and former health minister and mutineer Theresa Oswald appears to be too close to call. All three camps are claiming to have the most delegates heading into Sunday's vote.
Leadership campaigns are often ugly affairs, with lots of mud-slinging and accusations of rule violations and other improprieties. This one has been no exception. How Mr. Selinger has been able to concentrate on the affairs of the province while fending off his adversaries' slings and arrows is anyone's guess.
These contests are always hard on a party. Invariably, there are bruised feelings and hurt egos that result. It can sometimes take months or years to recover. That's why one of the first jobs of the victor is often to heal the deep wounds left behind.
Because of this, it's hard to see how Mr. Selinger wins the war even if he wins the battle. He would still be leader of the provincial NDP, but in many respects, it will not be the same party he inherited six years ago. There is a lot of anger and resentment, much of it directed at him. It is a party divided.
It certainly won't be easy to motivate the troops to campaign for him and the party in a year's time. If he lives to fight another day, the greatest challenge the Premier faces may not be trying to eliminate the deficit he's vowed to slay by next year, but eradicating the ennui and distrust that surrounds his leadership.
At the same time, it would also be foolish to write him off if he prevails. In fact, the media should just get out of the business of predicting such things, given our horrendous track record.
If Canada's only NDP Premier wins the right to hold on to his job this weekend, then he will have won the right to lead his charges into another general election. But for the moment, that's putting the writ before the horse.
Correction: Friday's print edition and earlier online versions of this incorrectly suggested that Manitoba Premier Greg Selinger had been in power for 16 years. In fact, it is the NDP that has been in power since 1999.
Gary Mason