We have glimpsed the future and we are less than enthusiastic about it. That, at least, appears to be the case when it comes to self-driving car – a topic that has become so ubiquitous, it rivals articles on Kim Kardashian's bottom, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's pugilism and Donald Trump's hair in the frequency it appears in the media.
The lack of enthusiasm for the self-driving future was recently articulated by the results of a new University of Michigan report on how the public feels about self-driving vehicles. Its findings offer little doubt as to the overwhelmingly tepid desire to see them on the road. The report, entitled Motorists' Preferences for Different Levels of Vehicle Automation, is the eighth such study by University of Michigan academics Brandon Schoettle and Michael Sivak that addresses public opinion on self-driving vehicles. It could just as easily have been titled Self-Driving Vehicles: No Really. Thanks Anyway. Do We Really Have to?
The researchers polled 612 licensed drivers in the United States from every region and age demographic. Here's what they found:
- When asked which level of automation they preferred, 45 per cent said “no self-driving” followed by “partially self-driving” at 38 and “completely self-driving” at 15 per cent.
- When asked how concerned they’d be driving in a self-driving car, 37 per cent were “very concerned” while 66 per cent were moderately concerned. Only 9 per cent were “not at all concerned.”
- When asked, “Would you prefer that a completely self-driving vehicles still have a steering wheel plus gas and brake pedals?” 96 per cent of women and 92 per cent of men answered yes.
- Most respondents said they preferred to communicate with self-driving vehicles via touchscreens and voice commands.
It's interesting to note that hesitation regarding the implementation of self-driving vehicles appears to be growing. In 2015, Schoettle and Sivak asked the same questions. The number of drivers who were "very concerned" about riding in a self-driving car rose from 14 per cent to 17 per cent, while the number who preferred "no self-driving" as their level of vehicle automation rose slightly from 43 per cent to 45 per cent. It's as if all the articles trumpeting our glorious self-driving future are creating more anxiety.
These are troubling findings because most of the newer cars on the road have, to one degree or another, self-driving components. This means that most drivers have no idea what self-driving cars are really all about. The other troubling aspect is that, whether a majority of motorists want them or not, self-driving cars will be a reality. Estimates on the timeline vary – anywhere from this Canada Day to Canada Day 2082. The fact that so many of the people who will be using them (or be used by them) don't want the words "self" and "driving" in close proximity with one another is depressing. It's also utterly predictable. People are creatures of habit. We fear change because the future is unknowable (until it slaps you on the face).
I've come around to the idea of the self-driving era. For instance, I look forward to the chance to have sex while driving without endangering anyone. I'm glad Uber is introducing self-driving cars. I'm thrilled that Google is already testing self-driving vehicles on California highways. I'm excited that the California startup Otto is developing self-driving semis.
Still, I intend to keep a foot in both camps (haters and lovers). I plan to own a self-driving vehicle, or be a member of a self-driving vehicle company and I plan to own an old stick-shift automobile that doesn't have "power" anything, so I can take it for a spin and go off the grid any time I want. Kind of like the way people have one new computer they use for business and one old computer they use to surf porn.
The future is almost here. Time for us to put the self in self-driving cars.
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Andrew Clark