Globe editors have posted this research report with permission of Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. This should not be construed as an endorsement of the report’s recommendations. For more on The Globe’s disclaimers please read here. The following text is excerpted from the report:
Inflation is a process, and it takes a long while to build. There is evidence that the consumer deleveraging cycle is largely over.
The shape of the aggregate supply curve is now so inelastic that it doesn’t take much in the way of growth in spending to generate higher inflation over time.
The prospect that we are sitting at over 3 per cent on the 10-year T-note yield a year from now and north of 4 per cent by 2017 is hardly trivial.
If you are an investor, don’t spend too long debating whether you should be starting to hedge your portfolio against the prospect of a rising long-term interest rate environment.
Read the full report here.