Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) stock -- like most stocks -- got a bit banged up on Wednesday after higher-than-expected inflation data dashed investors' hopes for a series of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024. But in contrast to many other stocks, Disney investors also got some good news.
Inflation or no inflation, and rate cuts or no interest rate cuts ... Disney stock is going up nearly 20% (according to Argus Research analyst Joseph Bonner), and will hit $140 a share within a year.
Is Disney stock a buy?
Disney is an entertainment conglomerate, boasting multiple profitable businesses -- most of which contribute to Bonner's buy thesis. True, the TV business is in secular decline, and "bleeding subscribers" as cord-cutting continues. But Disney parks and cruise lines, says the analyst, have "resumed full operations" and "are posting strong results." And Disney's streaming TV business is the only real competitor to Netflix.
He's right about almost all of this. While cable TV is in decline, it still generated more than $4.1 billion in operating profit for Disney over the last 12 months, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Parks and cruises combined to produce another $6 billion in profit. And while streaming is currently unprofitable, it's approaching $20 billion in annual revenue for Disney. (And Disney's plans to ban password sharing could help make those revenues profitable).
Given time, Disney has enough levers to pull to rehab the House of Mouse and get its profits growing again, I'm sure. My bigger concern is that investors are already assuming this growth will happen. At 27 times free cash flow (and Disney is even more expensive when debt is considered -- its enterprise value-to-free cash flow ratio is closer to 32x -- investors are crediting Disney stock with much more than the 17% long-term annual growth rate it's projected to achieve.
They're also not discounting the risk multiple movie flops (yes, I'm talking to you, Marvel) will cause profits to shrink further. If Disney's profits shrink rather than grow, its stock price could go down rather than up.
Where to invest $1,000 right now
When our analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for two decades, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has more than tripled the market.*
They just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Walt Disney made the list -- but there are 9 other stocks you may be overlooking.
*Stock Advisor returns as of April 8, 2024
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix and Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
