Nasdaq Futures Plunge as Big Tech Earnings Disappoint, Fed Rate Decision Looms

Oleksandr Pylypenko - Barchart - Wed Jan 31, 4:36AM CST

March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH24) are trending down -1.20% this morning as quarterly results from U.S. tech giants failed to meet Wall Street’s high expectations while investors braced for the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate decision of the year.

Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) plunged over -5% in pre-market trading after the company’s holiday-season advertising sales came in just shy of expectations. Also, Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) slumped more than -6% in pre-market trading after the U.S. chip designer provided a weaker-than-expected Q1 revenue forecast. In addition, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) fell over -1% in pre-market trading after the $3T tech behemoth offered a light Q3 revenue outlook.

In Tuesday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) plunged over -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the package delivery giant reported mixed Q4 results and issued below-consensus FY24 revenue guidance. Also, Whirlpool Corporation (WHR) slumped more than -6% after the company provided weaker-than-expected FY24 guidance. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) dropped over -3% after Raymond James downgraded the stock to Outperform from Strong Buy. On the bullish side, MSCI Inc (MSCI) climbed more than +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company posted upbeat Q4 results. Also, General Motors Company (GM) rose over +7% after the automaker reported better-than-expected Q4 results and issued a strong FY24 adjusted EPS forecast.

A Labor Department report on Tuesday showed that U.S. JOLTs job openings unexpectedly rose to 9.026M in December, stronger than expectations of 8.750M. Also, the U.S. January CB consumer confidence index rose to a 2-year high of 114.8, in line with expectations. In addition, the U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. rose +5.4% y/y in November, weaker than expectations of +5.8% y/y.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Boeing (BA), Mastercard (MA), MetLife (MET), Qualcomm (QCOM), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and Phillips 66 (PSX) are slated to release their quarterly results today.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision later in the day. U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.9% probability for the Fed to keep its federal funds rate range unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Also, market participants will closely watch the post-decision press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell for clues about rate cuts.

On the economic data front, investors will likely focus on U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data due later in the day. Economists, on average, forecast that January ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will come in at 145K, compared to the previous value of 164K.

The U.S. Chicago PMI will be reported today. Economists expect January’s figure to be 48.0, compared to the previous value of 46.9.

The U.S. Employment Cost Index will come in today. Economists foresee this figure to stand at +1.0% q/q in the fourth quarter, compared to the third-quarter number of +1.1% q/q.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be reported today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be -0.217M, compared to last week’s value of -9.233M.

In the bond markets, United States 10-year rates are at 4.023%, down -0.84%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.10% this morning as investors digested a slew of corporate earnings reports while awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the day. Gains in financial stocks are leading the overall market higher, with Banco Santander Sa (SAN.E.DX) rising over +1% after the Spanish lender posted a record-high Q4 profit. Meanwhile, data revealed on Wednesday that German retail sales experienced an unexpected decline in December compared to the previous month. In other corporate news, Beijer Ref Ab (BEIJB.S.DX) climbed over +6% after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 sales and projected continued growth in 2024. At the same time, H & M Hennes & Mauritz Ab (HMB.S.DX) plunged over -9% after Europe’s second-largest fashion retailer missed Q4 profit estimates and its chief executive officer stepped down.

U.K.’s Nationwide HPI, France’s CPI (preliminary), Germany’s Retail Sales, Germany’s Unemployment Rate, and Germany’s Unemployment Change data were released today.

U.K. January Nationwide HPI has been reported at +0.7% m/m and -0.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and -0.9% y/y.

The French January CPI stood at -0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.0% m/m.

The German December Retail Sales arrived at -1.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.7% m/m.

The German January Unemployment Rate was at 5.8%, stronger than expectations of 5.9%.

The German January Unemployment Change came in at -2K, stronger than expectations of +11K.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -1.48% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.61%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as sentiment was dampened by data indicating another month of contraction in the country’s factory activity. An official factory survey showed Wednesday that China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January due to subdued orders and a deceleration in output growth. At the same time, China’s services sector growth accelerated to a 4-month high in January. However, new orders in the services sector declined for the 9th straight month, and staffing levels also contracted for the 11th consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to its lowest level since June 18th, 2002, reflecting investor expectations for imminent monetary easing. On the positive side, state media reported that Suzhou and Shanghai, two major cities in China, followed Guangzhou in relaxing home-buying restrictions in an attempt to boost property sales. In corporate news, Sino Prima Gas Technology Co Ltd slid over -5% after agreeing to acquire a 51% stake in Yonghe County Weirun Gas for 349 million yuan.

“The manufacturing data suggested that disinflationary pressures continued in January,” Goldman Sachs economists said in a note.

The Chinese January Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.2, in line with expectations.

The Chinese January Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.7, stronger than expectations of 50.6.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, notching its best January performance in 26 years. Utilities stocks led the gains on Wednesday. Financial stocks also gained ground as indications that the BOJ may move to end negative rates fostered optimism over lenders’ profitability. Data revealed on Wednesday that Japanese retail sales rose less than anticipated in December from a year earlier. Separately, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a preliminary report that Japan’s industrial production rose 1.8% in December from the previous month, reversing from a 0.9% drop in the prior month but falling short of market estimates. Meanwhile, Japanese bond yields rose after a summary of the Bank of Japan’s meeting indicated that it is nearing a decision to raise its interest rate for the first time since 2007, with one member even cautioning against missing the opportunity to act. In corporate news, Alps Alpine Co Ltd tumbled over -15% after the company lowered its fiscal-year guidance and dividend forecast after swinging to a loss in its fiscal nine months. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +0.64% to 18.96.

The Japanese December Industrial Production came in at +1.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of +2.4% m/m.

The Japanese December Retail Sales arrived at +2.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +4.7% y/y.

The Japanese January Household Confidence stood at 38.0, stronger than expectations of 37.6.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Paramount Global (PARA) surged about +17% in pre-market trading after Bloomberg reported that media mogul Byron Allen made a $14.3 billion offer for the company.

Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) plunged over -5% in pre-market trading after the company’s holiday-season advertising sales came in just shy of expectations.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) slumped more than -6% in pre-market trading after the U.S. chip designer provided a weaker-than-expected Q1 revenue forecast.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) fell over -1% in pre-market trading after the $3T tech behemoth offered a light Q3 revenue outlook.

Tesla Inc (TSLA) slid more than -3% in pre-market trading following a Delaware judge’s decision to void Elon Musk’s $55 billion pay package, prompted by a shareholder lawsuit alleging that his substantial pay package was unduly approved.

Walmart Inc (WMT) gained over +1% in pre-market trading after the world’s largest retailer said it would conduct a split of its outstanding shares of common stock at a ratio of 3:1.

SoFi Technologies Inc. (SOFI) dropped more than -2% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $6.50.

You can see more pre-market stock movershere

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - January 31st

Mastercard (MA), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Qualcomm (QCOM), Boeing (BA), ADP (ADP), Boston Scientific (BSX), Phillips 66 (PSX), Roper Technologies (ROP), MetLife (MET), Aflac (AFL), Hess (HES), Cencora Inc (COR), Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ), Corteva (CTVA), Fortive (FTV), CGI Inc (GIB), AvalonBay (AVB), Aptiv (APTV), PTC (PTC), Align (ALGN), United Microelectronics (UMC), Markel (MKL), Avery Dennison (AVY), Lennox (LII), MarketAxesss (MKTX), Flex (FLEX), CH Robinson (CHRW), Qorvo Inc (QRVO), Tetra Tech (TTEK), SEI (SEIC), Hess Midstream Partners (HESM), NewYork Community Bancorp (NYCB), Evercore (EVR), Landstar (LSTR), Credit Acceptance (CACC), Nextracker (NXT), Selective (SIGI), Meritage (MTH), MGIC Investment (MTG), NewMarket (NEU), UGI (UGI), The Hanover Insurance (THG), Rayonier (RYN), Silgans (SLGN), Wolfspeed (WOLF), Avnet (AVT), Silicon Labs (SLAB), Group 1 Automotive (GPI), M/I Homes (MHO), Kulicke&Soffa (KLIC), Century Communities (CCS), Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT), Extreme (EXTR), Cimpress NV (CMPR), Brinker (EAT), MaxLinear (MXL), Vista Outdoor Inc (VSTO), Hawkins (HWKN), John B Sanfilippo&Son (JBSS), Columbus McKinnon (CMCO), Benchmark Electronics (BHE), Digi (DGII), Brandywine (BDN), BrightView Holdings (BV), Core Laboratories (CLB), Central Pacific Financial (CPF), 8x8 (EGHT), DLH Holdings (DLHC), Radcom (RDCM).

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On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.