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Option Volatility and Earnings Report for July 31 – August 4

Gavin McMaster - Barchart - Mon Jul 31, 2023

Last week was busy on the earnings front, but we have even more companies reporting this week including Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Uber (UBER), PayPal (PYPL), Pfizer (PFE), Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) all set to report.

Before a company reports earnings, implied volatility is usually high because the market is unsure about the outcome of the report. Speculators and hedgers create huge demand for the company’s options which increases the implied volatility, and therefore, the price of options.

After the earnings announcement, implied volatility usually drops back down to normal levels.

Let’s take a look at the expected range for these stocks. To calculate the expected range, look up the option chain and add together the price of the at-the-money put option and the at-the-money call option. Use the first expiry date after the earnings date. While this approach is not as accurate as a detailed calculation, it does serve as a reasonably accurate estimate.

Monday

SOFI – 16.2%

ANET – 8.3%

Tuesday

AMD – 7.8%

PFE – 3.7%

SBUX – 5.4%

CAT – 4.4%

MRK – 3.1%

NCLH – 8.4%

UBER – 8.4%

DVN – 5.1%

Wednesday

CVS – 4.3%

PYPL – 8.2%

HUM – 4.9%

SHOP – 10.6%

OXY – 4.3%

KHC – 3.0%

HOOD – 10.4%

ETSY – 11.3%

Thursday

AMZN – 6.6%

AAPL – 3.5%

BUD – 5.6%

COIN – 11.9%

SQ – 8.4%

ABNB – 7.8%

DKNG – 11.0%

EXPE – 7.6%

NET – 13.3%

Friday

NKLA – 28.0%

ENB – 4.1%

D – 4.3%

Option traders can use these expected moves to structure trades. Bearish traders can look at selling bear call spreads outside the expected range.

Bullish traders can sell bull put spreads outside the expected range, or look at naked puts for those with a higher risk tolerance.

Neutral traders can look at iron condors. When trading iron condors over earnings, it is best to keep the short strikes outside the expected range.

When trading options over earnings, it is best to stick to risk defined strategies and keep position size small. If the stock makes a larger than expected move and the trade suffers a full loss, it should not have more than a 1-3% effect on your portfolio.

Stocks With High Implied Volatility

We can use Barchart’s Stock Screener to find other stocks with high implied volatility.

Let’s run the stock screener with the following filters:

Total call volume: Greater than 2,000
Market Cap: Greater than 40 billion
IV Percentile: Greater than 70%

This screener produces the following results sorted by IV Percentile.

You can refer to this article for details of how to find option trades for this earnings season.

Last Week’s Earnings Moves

Last week’s actual versus expected moves are shown below:

DPZ +0.1% vs 5.8% expected

VZ +0.8% vs 4.3% expected

MMM +5.3% vs 4.4% expected

GM -3.5% vs 5.1% expected

GE +6.3% vs 4.6% expected

SPOT -14.3% vs 10.5% expected

NUE +3.7% vs 4.5% expected

MSFT -3.8% vs 5.8% expected

GOOGL +5.8% vs 6.1% expected

V -0.7% vs 3.3% expected

SNAP -14.2% vs 22.3% expected

T +0.6% vs 5.5% expected

BA +8.7% vs 4.8% expected

KO +1.3% vs 2.0% expected

META +4.4% vs 9.9% expected

CMG -9.8% vs 6.7% expected

RCL +8.7% vs 7.3% expected

MCD +1.2% vs 2.8% expected

LUV -8.9% vs 4.8% expected

MA -2.0% vs 3.4% expected

CROX -14.6% vs 10.0% expected

VLO -0.6% vs 3.8% expected

ABBV +4.9% vs 3.9% expected

BMY -4.2% vs 2.8% expected

HON -5.7% vs 3.4% expected

ENPH -7.5% vs 12.2% expected

F -3.4% vs 5.6% expected

INTC +6.6% vs 7.2% expected

ROKU +31.4% vs 12.8% expected

FSLR +4.8% vs 8.0% expected

X -1.4% vs 6.6% expected

XOM -1.2% vs 3.0% expected

PG +2.8% vs 3.0% expected

CVX -0.5% vs 2.8% expected

CL -1.9% vs 3.1% expected

Overall, there were 23 out of 35 that stayed within the expected range.

Changes In Open Interest

VALE, TSLA, NVDA, JNJ, F, AMC and SNAP saw some of the largest changes in open interest last week.

Other stocks with large changes in open interest are shown below:

Please remember that options are risky, and investors can lose 100% of their investment. This article is for education purposes only and not a trade recommendation. Remember to always do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.