The B.C. government is seeking the public's input on a new, 10-year transportation plan. Of course, it mostly knows already what it wants to do, and how much it will cost, but it needs to create the illusion that whatever priority list it establishes reflects the grand wishes of the populace.
That may sound like a deeply cynical view of what's afoot here but it's not. All governments do it to avoid the ugly allegation that the public has little say in the agenda instituted by our elected lawmakers. But the reality is the public has its say at election time and after that governments generally carry out the agenda they ran on. Or one they make up as they go along.
In his news conference Tuesday, B.C. Transportation Minister Todd Stone talked a lot about a plan designed to help grow the economy and move goods and people safely and reliably. There was mention of new bridges and highway upgrades. But lurking in the background of any discussion about the future of transportation in B.C. is the planned Metro Vancouver transit referendum.
People keep forgetting about it. But this plebiscite is absolutely critical to the future growth strategy of the region. If it fails, and it very well could, it could set transportation development and planning in the Lower Mainland back a decade or more.
Last spring, the region's mayors published a vision document that laid out a $7.5-billion, 10-year transit expansion strategy. Among other things, it calls for two light rail lines for Surrey, a subway for Vancouver, a new bridge and hundreds of new buses. It offered several different options for paying for their share of the bill, a couple of which the province – which has authority over some of these options – immediately shot down. So the mayors have since had to go back to the funding drawing board as they prepare to come up with a referendum question that proposes a plan and specific measures to finance it.
The speed at which this process is unfolding is mind-boggling.
The mayors basically have a deadline of Dec. 11 to come up with their new plan, and a realistic financing model to pay for it. And, as important as anything, they must also devise by then a "winnable" referendum question – one that the mayors will have to start campaigning on in January ahead of a spring to early summer vote. That is a bewilderingly tight time frame considering that in the U.S., where transit plebiscites are common (unlike in B.C.), the public consultation and education period ahead of the poll can often be two years or longer.
In this case, the referendum here is legislated to take place by mid-summer. But in reality, it has to take place before then because a key demographic for the pro-referendum forces is university students. They finish classes around the end of March and exams sometime in April. The voting will take place through a mail-in ballot, likely over the course of a six-week period. So those marshalling behind a positive referendum outcome will want to get ballots into students' hands before they scatter for the summer.
University students are active transit users and have a big incentive to support a massive expansion. But generally, young people have a poor turnout record in elections. Older people, on the other hand, do exercise their democratic rights. And they are often inclined to vote against measures that mean they will have to part with more of their hard-earned cash, especially those on fixed incomes.
In the next few weeks, the mayors will have to decide on what financing options are likely to be the most palatable to the broader public. They include measures such as mobility pricing, a regional carbon tax, a vehicle levy, a regional sales tax increase and property tax hike. The mayors were also counting on the federal and provincial governments to make one-third contributions to complete the $7.5-billion transit package. And Ottawa, at least, has already indicated that's not going to happen.
It remains to be seen how this all plays out. Transit has emerged as a key election issue in most municipal races under way right now. Many people are wondering how local governments can keep approving massive residential developments with no immediate plans to bolster transit, something that will be desperately needed to move the tens of thousands of people pouring into the region every year.
The mayors' transit document is the most important one that exists in B.C. right now, and far more pressing than the 10-year plan that the provincial government has announced it is in the process of crafting.
Gary Mason