Quebec Premier Pauline Marois responds to opposition questions over the expected deficit in the National Assembly in Quebec City, April 23, 2013.Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press
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Only seven months into power and already the Parti Québécois minority government finds itself in a political straitjacket.
With each passing month the PQ distances itself from a social democratic agenda and the sovereignty option has been placed indefinitely on the backburner.
The polls have been disastrous for Premier Pauline Marois. Support for the party since the September 2012 election has dropped seven points to 25 per cent according to the latest CROP poll. The government's approval rating is down to 35 per cent with more than two-thirds of Quebeckers saying that the government is headed in the wrong direction.
Without trying to appeal to the party's core constituency, Ms. Marois remains locked in to achieving a zero deficit by the end of the current fiscal year.
The policy has constrained the PQ to abandon one of its main commitments to abolish the health tax while shying away from its promise to substantially increase mining royalties, bowing to pressures from an industry rethinking investment projects in the face of weaker metal prices.
The government has chosen to claw back benefits for certain welfare recipients, maintain the increase in hydro rates and push ahead with austerity measures that will reduce short-term funding for schools and universities as part of its uncompromising effort at eliminating the deficit.
The absence of progressive policies has driven many social-democratic sovereigntist supporters to the left-wing Quebec Solidaire party, which now has the support of 11 per cent of voters, almost double what it received in last September's election.
In a clear overture to the business community that stunned many PQ supporters, Ms. Marois went so far as to appoint Pierre Karl Péladeau, the leading figure behind Quebecor Media Inc. and Sun Media Corp, one of the most powerful media empires in the country, as Chairman of the Board of Hydro Quebec, the crown jewel of the province's public utilities.
Current PQ advisers found it imperative for Ms. Marois to reach out to the more conservative business community for support. "I'm a bit disappointed to hear so few voices supporting us," she told the Quebec Employers Council in a speech earlier this week. What else could a PQ leader expect from such a pro-federalist business audience?
As the government struggled with weaker than anticipated economic growth and a shortfall in revenues Ms. Marois even met privately with a small group of influential business leaders to examine if it would be wise to postpone the zero deficit. She came out of the meeting determined to stay the course and decided instead to dip into the government's cash reserve to make up for the projected shortfall in revenue.
Rather than postpone the elimination of the deficit and reconsider her government's fiscal measures, Ms. Marois has chosen to pursue her austerity drive. Yet she could have easily taken a different course, one more in line with her party's traditional ideology. The PQ leader is gambling that she will govern until next spring when she will announce that her government has adequately managed the economy and successfully eliminated the deficit, persuading voters to hand her a majority government. But by then the PQ may have paid such a heavy political price for pursuing its zero-deficit goal that the obstacles will be too great to overcome.
The Liberals have been rejuvenated after choosing Philippe Couillard last month as their new leader. While enjoying a solid lead in the latest CROP poll at 38 per cent they are convinced they are on the cusp of winning back power.
The dismal showing of the Coalition Avenir Quebec will likely help keep the PQ minority government on life support at least until next fall and perhaps well into the following spring. The CAQ will be in no position to help bring the government down any time soon, giving the PQ time to turn public opinion in its favour.
But for a minority government time is a rare commodity, which so far the PQ has shown it has not used wisely to its advantage.
Rhéal Séguin covers the provincial legislature in Quebec City.
Rhéal Séguin