Pollster Nik Nanos.The Globe and Mail
Nik Nanos is The Globe and Mail's pollster and chairman of Nanos Research. Follow him on Twitter at @niknanos
Governing, particularly for a new government still finding its footing, can be akin to drinking from the public policy fire hose. The volume, intensity and speed at which issues are hurled at one is prodigious.
At best, governing is a balancing act between three sometimes aligned yet many times competing forces: the drive to respond to the priorities of citizens; the imperative to respond to day-to-day issues that are part of the running of a government; and the desire to fulfill political promises made during a campaign.
At worst, parties make governing decisions that are disconnected from the priorities of citizens. They do this when they fail to appreciate the true reason for their victory. Often this results in a disturbing wake-up call come re-election time. Understanding the underlying reality of their political victory and the true priorities of citizens is the best way to stay grounded and be a successful government.
Although very early in the mandate of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the Liberals should take heed of factors that led to their electoral success.
First, the last federal election was about change, with Justin Trudeau being the agent of change. Yes, Mr. Trudeau performed well in the campaign and the campaign was very well designed and implemented. The victory was deserved. But the Liberal majority was made possible when incumbent Conservatives, led by Harper, ran a lacklustre campaign peppered with missteps. In that sense, the adage that "governments defeat themselves" comes to mind.
At the beginning of the election campaign, Canadians indicated that they would have considered either the Trudeau Liberals or the Mulcair New Democrats. As the NDP campaign sputtered, the Liberals became the agent of change against a Harper government that had hit its best before date. The trap for the Liberals is to believe that their victory was a warm embrace of every part of the Liberal platform, treating it as political gospel to enact.
In reality, the platform focus of the Liberals probably needs to be tempered with the public policy issues Canadians see as priorities. A recent Nanos survey for CTV News asked an open-ended question on the priorities Canadians wanted to see in the next federal budget. Was it Syrian refugees? That was mentioned by 0.1 per cent of Canadians. Pipelines, perhaps? That was mentioned by 1.0 per cent of Canadians. The environment maybe? That was considered a budget priority for 3.6 per cent of Canadians.
The top issue, unprompted, that Canadians wanted to see as a priority for the upcoming federal budget was health care at 43.3 per cent followed by a focus on infrastructure at 27.5 per cent and then jobs and the economy at 7.6 per cent. This is not to diminish the importance of the Syrian refugee effort, pipelines or the environment – those are all important issues.
However, this speaks to a potential disconnect between the Liberal government and Canadians. Health care has mostly been either the most important or the second most important issue in almost every wave of Nanos tracking in over a decade.
Health care is in the public policy attic rattling about – and has been for almost a decade. True, it is difficult and costly and something many politicians see as a no-win issue because of its complexity. Still, week in, week out, Canadians say it is important to them.
Delivering on promises related to the environment and Syrian refugees is important but so is dealing with the issues Canadians want action on – such as health care. This is what makes for an effective governing strategy.