Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event at Plymouth State University, in Plymouth, N.H., Feb. 7, 2016.David Goldman/The Associated Press
David Shribman is executive editor of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and a winner of the Pulitzer Prize for coverage of U.S. politics.
And so one day of campaigning remains before the New Hampshire primary, the rustic political festival where candidates appear in tiny tucked-away villages for months and then engage in a furious February week of mass voter appeals and media advertising blasts. This ritual is a century old this year, and this battle has lived up to both the folklore and expectations of the Granite State. From the highest peaks of the White Mountains to the heady software startups of the cities to the sea-level towns of the state's beach enclaves, this has been a raucous affair.
The drama has occurred not so much in two acts as on two stages – one Republican and one Democratic, one fiercely conservative and the other just as fiercely liberal, one with wide differences on issues and the other with broad differences in personalities. It has been a grand edition of a great tradition.
With Iowa a week in the past and with contests in the South and desert West looming, this primary holds a special place, not just in history but also in the trajectory of the 2016 campaign. Fewer candidates will depart New Hampshire than will have entered it; the state will be the graveyard both of hopes and candidacies; and those who depart to fight again will do so with bruises and antagonisms that may not heal until the midsummer nominating conventions, or may linger for years. It has happened before, many times.
So as the candidates prepare their final appeals, here is a Canadian viewers' guide to these sometimes-inscrutable American political rituals. For this tiny state of 1.3 million souls – about 4 per cent of the United States – often has an outsized influence on the political life of the nation, reshaping the country's politics in just a few hours' time:
How fares Trump? The main question for Tuesday night is whether billionaire Donald Trump, who has disrupted the psyche of a party that until recently prided itself on its staid proceedings, retains the lead that he has had since early autumn. If he does, he will have obviated his loss in Iowa and will present the fading Republican establishment with new worries and with fewer chances to stop him.
Who's next? Senator Ted Cruz of Texas (née Alberta) won the first round of the political derby, the Iowa caucuses, but isn't widely expected to prevail in New Hampshire, where evangelicals are far less prominent and where the rush-the-barricades style of politics he prosecutes has less appeal. Still, as the primary drew closer, he was moving up in the voter surveys that have become as much a part of daily life in the state as the weather report, a popular preoccupation in a state whose northern reaches were described by an 1849 visitor as "wild and sublime."
The best threat for second place (or even for first) is the other Cuban-American in the field, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who finished third in Iowa, but whose debate performance over the weekend is raising questions about his authenticity and suitability for high office.
Sensing Mr. Rubio's potential rise, his rivals, particularly Chris Christie, targeted him Saturday, with the New Jersey governor portraying him as unprepared and robotic. Mr. Rubio essentially made Mr. Christie's point for him, by repeating an often-used line about Barack Obama having a deliberate plan to transform America three times during the course of the debate.
Still, If Mr. Rubio has a strong second, or even triumphs, he could be well positioned to emerge as the principal alternative to Mr. Trump or even as the front-runner for the nomination himself. Others who have finished second in New Hampshire include George W. Bush and Mr. Obama, both elected nine months later. A New Hampshire defeat is not a death sentence – and in some cases can even be a reprieve.
How about those governors closely identified with establishment Republicanism? New Hampshire could be the last roundup for all of them: Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, Governor John Kasich of Ohio and former governor Jeb Bush of Florida, who campaigned late last week with his 90-year-old mother, a beloved figure who has become a symbol of Yankee bluntness. (She said on CNN on Friday that she was "sick" of Mr. Trump.) The governor best positioned for a breakout: Mr. Kasich.
And the Democrats? Senator Bernie Sanders is well positioned, politically and geographically, to prevail. He is from neighbouring Vermont and has been campaigning heavily in New Hampshire, creating a base of progressives who feel former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton is weak tea in comparison. She is hurt by her ties to Wall Street and by her stiff campaign style, but her husband has always performed well in New Hampshire and she defeated Mr. Obama in the state eight years ago. She shouldn't be counted out. Mr. Sanders, on the other hand, could win New Hampshire and never win another state.
Whither the Independents? They are a force in this state, more so than in any other because their numbers are so great and because they can vote in party primaries without being members of the parties. How they break is a substantial unknown – and a substantial factor. One hint may be the margin that the front-runners hold in the final poll numbers. If, for example, Mr. Sanders holds a robust double-digit lead, some Independents partial to the Vermonter may drift into the Republican primary and vote for a moderate such as Mr. Kasich as a way to blunt Mr. Trump. There are too many possibilities to linger on any one scenario for the thousands of Independents, but they could hold the key to victory for some candidates or bring on the defeat of others.
The weather. New Hampshire has some of the most severe weather in the United States, with winds so wild that it can be dangerous to venture outside the meteorological station atop Mount Washington, the highest peak in the Northeast. If a big snow falls, so, too, does voter participation. Iowa had a record turnout for its caucuses. New Hampshire is poised to do the same for its primary.
David Shribman