The number of undecided has been steadily declining from a high of about 22 per cent in the beginning of the campaign to about 15 per cent now. As a note, if you see undecided starting to dramatically rise, that is a leading indicator of future movement because when people change their mind, they shift to the undecided column and then move to a new political home.
[Comment From Desmond Hume]What are the sleeper issues of this campaign? There seem to be so many talking points (coalitions are evil; democracy was betrayed; economy going well; jets are expensive; students ejected from rally, etc) but nothing really substantive. What issue could end up breaking through the noise?
[Comment From Nik Nanos (The Pollster)]/b> It's funny, I thought the Auditor-General's report could have been the issue to turn things because it was an example of a third party validating a narrative of the opposition. But the debates came and went and knocked the A-G report off the radar. I believe that a narrative related to the style of the governing could have traction but Harper has done a very good job during the campaign at managing things and issues that it might not be as much of a vulnerability.
Jennifer MacMillan, Globe and Mail We're running short on time, so we'll be wrapping up. But something to end on: Do you think the information revealed by Helena Guergis from the RCMP and her freedom of information request has potential to do what the A-G report couldn't?
[Comment From Nik Nanos (The Pollster)]/b> I think it could move the numbers because of the personal narrative - she's a young woman, her husband has done some ... things, she is a mother and this relates to fairness of treatment. It also feeds a particular narrative of the perceived leadership style of Harper.
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