We report polls because, well, politics watchers like to read them. But two polls released this week show just how reliable the results of any one particular survey can be.
A poll released Friday by Abacus Data suggests the federal Conservatives are now first choice of 38 per cent of decided voters and that the Liberals have slipped to 23 per cent in popular support. The same survey put the New Democrats at 19 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at 11 per cent and the Greens at 8 per cent.
This online poll of 1,005 Canadians who were randomly selected from a panel of 100,000 was conducted on Feb. 23 - the day after EKOS Research ended its own survey of 2,811 Canadians and turned up much different results.
The EKOS poll, which was conducted between Feb. 10 and Feb. 22, put the Tories at 32.4 per cent, the Liberals at 27.3 per cent, the NDP at 14.8 per cent, the Bloc at 11.9 per cent and the Greens at 10.5 per cent.
That was a significant drop for the Conservatives from the numbers they attained in an EKOS survey two weeks prior. Pollster Frank Graves attributed the decline, at least in part, to the controversy surrounding International Co-operation Minister Bev Oda.
But Abacus says 54 per cent of the people it surveyed did not know even who Ms. Oda was.
Obviously both polls can't be right. One has the Tories flirting with a majority. The other suggests the Liberals would have gained seats and reduced the Conservative minority if an election had been held this week.
The EKOS poll undoubtedly pleased the Liberals. The Abacus poll would have delighted the Conservatives – even though they claim not to put much stock in such things.
It's obviously something of a mug's game until the real numbers are counted at the ballot box.