A couple heads to a polling station near Sidney B.C., in the Vancouver Island riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands, on Oct. 14, 2008.Deddeda Stemler
Liberal Party pollster Michael Marzolini says only 15 per cent of the Canadian electorate is paying attention to federal politics - never mind all the supercharged speculation of late about an imminent election.
We asked out pollster panel what they thought about this - whether they believed it and what this could possibly mean for the next election.
NIK NANOS agrees that only a minority of Canadians "live and breathe" politics all the time. "Most Canadians are likely fair-weather observers, which means that they tune in when there is either something interesting or entertaining or when we are in a full-blown campaign," the head of Nanos Research told The Globe on Thursday.
But he sees two key challenges to waking up voters in this environment, arguing the likelihood of a "major change" is low.
First, Mr. Nanos, suggested it's hard to get people excited or engaged when it appears there will be no change from minority to majority government. And second, it is even more difficult when the "political menu in terms of party leaders has generally remained unchanged." Stephen Harper, Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe are all running again and Canadians know them well.
Since Michael Ignatieff is the only new player on the block, Mr. Nanos predicted there will be more focus on the Liberal Leader as the campaign begins. "During the election Canadians will find out whether he will be at the political table or on the political menu."
FRANK GRAVES thinks the current "loose levels of engagement" are relevant, providing advantages and disadvantages for the political parties. Instead of concentrating on the 85 per cent of the electorate who are not engaged, however, the EKOS Research president focused on the dedicated voters.
"This 'engaged' audience advantage for Mr. Ignatieff may mostly be the drift of more highly-educated voters to the LPC that began during the census long-form debacle." Regardless, Mr. Graves said, this more educated group or "influentials" is a good one to have on side.
Even better, he said, is the Tory base, which is much more committed and enthusiastic than that of any other party. "This provides a hidden advantage compared to the polling of eligible voters which led to the CPC actually doing somewhat better in the last election than the final polls."
DIMITRI PANTAZOPOULOS says it is not unique to this era to have so few people engaged when there is nothing yet happening. The Praxicus Public Strategies pollster argued that Canadians will wake up to politics when there is either a "crisis or an election."
"I believe that threats of an election are like year-end car sales," he said. "People listen to the ads but they have no discernible impact."
However, as an election approaches and issues crystallize, he said, Canadians will rethink their preferences, noting that in past elections a third of the electorate makes up its mind in the last 72 hours.
"Not to say they change their minds necessarily. Rather, many reaffirm their existing choice. Absent a burning issue, this is what will happen in the upcoming election."
DARRELL BRICKER believes Canadians are neither disengaged nor apathetic about politics. Instead, the Ipsos-Reid president said Canadians aren't paying attention because their minds are already made up.
"It's really studied indifference, not apathy," he said. "Voters are stuck where they are and won't change until they're given a compelling reason to do so. Yes, voters may be park, but they will stay in the lot until they are convinced to drive away."