Tourists walk toward Parliament Hill as it is lit up for holiday season in on Tuesday, December 15, 2009.Sean Kilpatrick
All political cultures have cycles. In the 1990s, for example, the provincial legislature in Saskatchewan would sit for 80 days or so over the winter and spring, and then wrap up in late spring in a cloud of articles and panels discussing the same question: "Who won the session?"
If the opposition had planted some serious torpedoes below the water line, they "won." Otherwise, the government "won." So, who won the year in federal politics?
I think it would be fair to say that Michael Ignatieff and his wing of the Liberal party didn't win 2009. Things seemed to start well for the Liberal Leader when he reneged on the coalition agreement discussed here this month, and committed to partner with Stephen Harper's Conservatives to address the recession and to make Parliament work.
That move was well received in much of the political culture in English Canada. Mr. Ignatieff was therefore respectfully covered in the winter and spring of 2009; Liberal support crept up to the same level as the Conservative party's; and the universe seemed to be unfolding as it should through to the spring convention where Mr. Ignatieff was formally elected leader.
Then Mr. Ignatieff disappeared for the summer; reappeared to announce the Conservative government's time was up; failed to defeat Mr. Harper in the House of Commons; and has been mercilessly pummelled ever since. This fall the Liberals came in third in each of four by-elections held across the country. At the end of the year Mr. Ignatieff threw his campaign and political team overboard, and is no longer talking about early elections. His plan "A" didn't work. Lost the year.
Things started badly for Jack Layton and the New Democrats, and then improved. Mr. Layton's coalition initiative foundered, and the orange tribe was made to pay a price for this through the winter and spring. The New Democratic Party's solid opposition to the Harper government was viewed as mostly dealing them out of federal politics. However, this fall the government met long-standing NDP demands for improvement in employment insurance. The NDP therefore let the government survive.
This demonstrated several things to voters: that Mr. Layton and his party are focused on getting results; that they know how to read polls (which clearly demonstrated that the public was not looking for another early election); and that Mr. Layton is a nimble strategist. The NDP Leader was rewarded with a convincing by-election victory and two second places. Plan "A" didn't work. Plan "B" seems to be going better so far. Lost and won all in one year - a neat trick.
By the start of 2009, Mr. Harper's Conservative government could be fairly confident they were not going to be ousted by a combined opposition. They drew the obvious lesson (that they don't have a majority yet) and have governed much more prudently this year. This has generally gone over well with Canadians. However, as the year comes to its end, it becomes more evident that although the Conservatives are governing more prudently, they are not governing particularly well.
Their low-taxes/high-spending fiscal policy is reckless and seen to be so. Their half-hearted stimulus plan is not contributing to recovery of Canada's industrial or resource industries. Their environmental policies are an international disgrace - something Canadians are not used to. The treatment of enemy combatants who surrendered to our country on Mr. Harper's watch raises important questions about the Conservative government's commitment to transparency, to accountability and to international law.
These policies put a lot of water between this government and the majority of Canadians - which is why the Conservatives seem to be ending the year with no more support than they had a year ago, despite the remarkable political opportunity offered them by the leader of the official opposition.
And so the Conservative government won the year - on points.
But we can see in these issues - the fundamentals of Canada's fiscal, economic, environmental and foreign policy - the bones of this government's defeat.
What remains to be seen is if Mr. Layton or Mr. Ignatieff can take advantage of the Conservative government's vulnerabilities in the new year. That this opportunity exists speaks to the fact that victory on points is not a knockout.
(Photo: Tourists walk toward Parliament Hill as it is lit up for holiday season this week. Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)