There's been talk lately about the idea of a merger involving the NDP and Liberals. This brought to mind some experience I had researching the coming together of PC's and the Reform/Alliance some years ago.
In that instance, (as in this current situation), polling data raised doubts about whether putting two parties together would be like adding one plus one and getting two. But while on the surface it appeared that some voters might reconsider their support for the party they voted for in the past, the reality is that the merger of the centre right and right has been largely successful.
And, as a consequence of that success, it is hard not to believe that the merger of the centre-left and left is a pre-requisite of long term competitiveness for those who support the Liberal Party.
It's true that at any given point in time, anger with incumbents can grow, and if that happens the Liberal Party is in a position where it could form a government. But it seems to me that Liberal Party members need to be asking themselves: is it good enough to settle for being the fall-back, or as someone once termed it, "the spare tire" of federal politics.
The Liberal Party used to be the dominant party because it dominated among voters on the centre of the spectrum. No longer. The Harper Conservatives have proven to be less radical than Red Tories feared, and now not only own the right but have a much more notable chunk of voters on the centre of the spectrum too.
Once the PC's and Alliance merged, Liberal campaigns had to rely on one "go-to pitch": caricature the Conservatives as fearfully right wing, in an effort to siphon off soft NDP and Bloc supporters. This pitch worked well enough produce a narrow win in 2004, and to prevent a more brutal loss in 2006. But by 2008, Canadians' experience with Stephen Harper was eroding the credibility of this message: whether they loved him or not, he scared them less.
That Liberal strategy was really just a haphazard variation on what some Liberals are talking about now: building and securing a new coalition of voters around the centre and left of the spectrum. Those Liberals who are repelled by this idea often come at it from a tribal standpoint, uncomfortable with any change in the DNA of the Party they call home, no truck nor trade with "enemies". But this reaction underscores another reality: that tribalism is not only the Red Bull of political parties, it can be their Kryptonite too.
At some point, the math of what it will take to win consistently needs to be considered by Liberals, and the math looks pretty compelling. Absent devastating wounds to the Conservatives (and a recession, two prorogations, a massive deficit, the Great Recession, and a handful of scandals haven't done much to dent their support) Liberals need to crush the BQ, the NDP, and Green Party or find a way to work together with those they can best get along with. The first seems unlikely, so the latter might merit some real consideration.
The split on the centre-left is a critical barrier to the chances of the Liberal Party forming a government soon. Whether a formal merger is a good idea or not, once the right coalesced, the clock began ticking on the discussion that is happening today.
Bruce Anderson