The Sunday Times of London is reporting that several European publications are bidding for photos of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, a man who's been much in the news in recent weeks. According to the Times, the aim is to publish the photos -- which show, among other things, Mr. Berlusconi "grinning broadly as two young women kiss in front of him at his Sardinian estate" -- just before the G8 summit, which begins on Wednesday under Mr. Berlusconi's chairmanship.
The media being what they are, one can expect that much attention will be paid to these photos, and to the host of the meeting. I, on the other hand, will be watching for additional signs of an emerging axis between Prime Minister Stephen Harper and U.S. President Barack Obama -- quite the opposite of the clash many were predicting after Mr. Obama's election in November.
For example, Sunday's New York Times reports that Canada and the United States are working closely together to moderate OAS actions in regard to the Honduras coup. According to the Times, the two countries dissuaded the Organization of American States from adopting sanctions, and persuaded them to settle for a milder resolution encouraging member countries to "review their relations" while diplomatic efforts continued. They were not, however, able to persuade President Zelaya not to return to his country on Sunday.
This, of course, was the scenario feared by Canadians who long opposed our country joining the OAS. However, since most of these voices are on the left, it's unlikely we'll hear much criticism from them in coming days, now that Mr. Obama is in office.
At the G8 meeting that begins on Wednesday, I expect we'll see the same centrist axis converge between Mr. Harper, a pragmatist of the right, and Mr. Obama, a pragmatist of the left. For one thing, both countries have a reasonable record on fulfilling their commitments to African aid-in contrast to Italy, for example. It's unlikely there will be any disagreements on Iran. And, on the question of climate change, the two countries are not as far apart as some of Mr. Harper's domestic critics would have you believe.
Contrary to what these critics have been saying, the targets adopted by the Conservative government are more ambitious than those in the bill passed by the House of Representatives last week. True, the United States has reduced its emissions more than Canada has, but these reductions took place under the much-vilified Bush administration, which, like the Clinton-Gore administration before it, did not ratify the Kyoto protocol.
Privately, the Europeans are disturbed that the targets in the House bill, like Canada's, ignore the commitments made at Kyoto. However, they also know they need the Americans in the tent if any progress is to be made on a successor treaty to Kyoto. Accordingly, they are thrilled that Mr. Obama will chair a meeting this week of the 17-nations that account for 80 per cent of world carbon emissions.
Instead of vocalizing their disagreement with the U.S. targets, watch for the Europeans to focus on a new measure of climate change progress: a commitment by all countries to prevent world temperatures increasing by more than 2 degrees, the maximum thought permissible before climate change becomes irreversible. As to the threat of trade sanctions against countries that do not adopt comparable emission reduction programs, far from being directed at Canada or the Europeans, the eyes of U.S. legislators are on China and India-both of which will have to play ball if this new goal is to be achieved, as Mr. Harper has long contended.