Tories notch first victory on day of historic defeat

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If Friday was the unofficial first found of this election campaign, my scorecard says the Conservatives won, but only by a few points. Here's why.

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's tightly scripted appearance meant his message was exactly what he wanted it to be, rather a response to a media inquiry about a subject he didn't want to discuss. More important, he knew that Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff would be peppered with questions about a Liberal, Bloc and NDP coalition and he made sure that the focus of attention was on that question.

Mr. Harper's solemnity yesterday reflects the prime ministerial demeanour he is showcasing increasingly, in part to combat public concerns that he is first, last and always, a relentless partisan. No doubt he believes, and with some reason, that holding this tone throughout the election campaign is one of the best ways to reassure those voters who haven't really warmed to him, that he would be no radical if he emerged with a majority of seats.

If this tightly scripted, understated, cool approach offers upside to the Conservatives, it also carries some risks to be sure. There was little in Mr. Harper's comments about the country and its future yesterday that was in any way aspirational: his mantra is unmistakably, almost defiantly, about Canada as a plodding tortoise in a world of failing or at least winded hares. If his opponents can excite people at all, Mr. Harper's message may start to look underwhelming to a fault.

For Mr. Ignatieff, Friday's statement was less than entirely successful. Some of the Liberal Leader's criticisms of the Conservatives were sharply worded and delivered with solid energy, but viewers may have been left without a clear single takeaway. It was a good idea to surround him with his talented team, but a lot of those faces surrounding Mr. Ignatieff's looked a little more grim than confident.

More important, his response to the inevitable coalition question remains awkward, a problem he would be well advised to resolve today. How best to do that, all things considered?

This was source of discussion in my household last evening, settled when my wife, a woman with deep experience and insight into Canadian politics noted simply: Mr. Ignatieff should assert that in our system, the party which wins the most seats gets to form a government. Questions about what would happen if a Conservative government couldn't survive for long in the House are hypotheticals Mr. Ignatieff is not required to solve because, in the end, they are questions that are as easily turned back to the Conservatives. Mr. Ignatieff must simply assure voters that he would not try to pre-emptively form a government from a second place finish. (As this is posted, it looks as though Mr. Ignatieff has made a clarification along these lines, likely prompting a rewrite to the speaking notes being prepared down the street at 24 Sussex)

Thanks to the many talented, hard-working, MPs (like Chuck Strahl and Albina Guarnieri to name just a couple) who are leaving public life as this Parliament ends and thanks too, to all those good citizens who have decided to stand for office, for all parties. Let's hope this election is a good contest, fought by people with strong views and mutual respect.