The landmark U.S. health-care bill will continue to provoke a lot of debate about its substantive merits. And now that an outcome is at hand, there will be different interpretations of the political risks and benefits for President Barack Obama.
Did he get the math wrong, believing when he launched this initiative that it would be popular only to find himself too far down the road to turn back, even if he wanted to? Did he decide to pursue this knowing it might kill his chances of a second term, but because he believed it was the right thing to do?
Or is there another calculation possible? Because of this bill, 32 million people who lacked health insurance will have it. Many who had been denied coverage will find a new peace of mind. All of these voters will know that Obama, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats endured a terrific beating from the Republicans in order to make it happen. In an era when so many feel government is broken and can accomplish nothing, it's likely that these voters will appreciate the President and his party for persevering.
Most of the recent public opinion resistance to the health reform proposal was about people who already had health care worrying that they would lose something, or deficit weary taxpayers worried about the cost of the overhaul.
Let's imagine for a moment that those who feared losing something will find they don't, and that part of the debate dissipates in any event, as people and institutions get on with adjusting to the new playing field.
On affordability, what if the latest, torrid U.S. GDP growth numbers are what Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner says they are, a sign of renewed spring in America's economic step. If so, and the fiscal gap starts to narrow in any meaningful way, the number of Americans worried about the cost of the health care bill might dwindle pretty quickly, especially among Independents and soft Republicans.
Passing this bill doesn't solve all of the challenges the President has on his plate. But those who might argue it will be a pyrrhic victory in electoral terms should grind on those numbers again. Probably better to be a Democrat today, than a Republican, in terms of their positioning on this transformative piece of legislation.
Bruce Anderson