This hand out picture shows Yousuf Raza Gilani, Pakistani Prime Minister, attend the national assembly session in Islamabad on March 24, 2008.AFP/Getty Images/AFP / Getty Images
Pakistan's government has assured the world that the regime does not stand on the brink of imminent collapse after its parliamentary coalition unravelled over the weekend.
However, this will not soothe the growing anxieties of its Western partners, fearing a fresh round of political infighting at a time when wars along its border with Afghanistan demand more attention than ever.
Nor will the armies facing the Taliban be heartened that the latest upheaval has emerged from the southern city of Karachi, whose port handles nearly all the bullets, water, food and other supplies for Canadian troops and their allies.
Karachi's main political party, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, pulled its 25 elected members from the coalition on Sunday, leaving the governing group led by Pakistan Peoples Party 12 seats short of a majority in the National Assembly.
This puts Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani at the mercy of his biggest rival, Nawaz Sharif, who has already served twice as prime minister and now leads an opposition party with 89 seats that could destroy, or save, the struggling government.
The drama has grabbed popular attention in a country that usually follows cricket more closely than politics: "No matter what Gilani's attire is tomorrow, there's going to be a bull's eye painted behind it," wrote one Twitter user.
Mr. Gilani spoke carefully about his opponent over the weekend, referring to him with traditionally respectful terms and expressing hope that the government might continue working. Mr. Sharif may allow that to happen, in the short term, because a quick vote of no-confidence would suggest co-operation between his party and the notorious MQM, which has been blamed for tit-for-tat killings during a spate of ethnic violence in Karachi. Mr. Sharif's party has also feuded with the MQM in recent months, decreasing the likelihood that the two parties would join forces to overthrow the government.
Under the constitution, members representing at least 20 per cent of 342 parliamentary seats can sponsor a no-confidence vote, and such a measure needs a majority.
Even if Mr. Gilani limps through the current crisis and keeps his job as Prime Minister, it seems likely that his administration's major focus in the coming weeks will be finding new political allies and shoring up support - and not, as its major foreign partner, the United States, and others hoped, a new push against the Taliban. His international partners have spent months trying to persuade him and the country's military leadership to send troops into North Waziristan, a mountainous region along the eastern border, when the snows melt in spring.
Such an offensive would become even less likely if Mr. Sharif wins the political struggle in Islamabad; among the major party leaders, he's widely seen as the most sympathetic to the militants.
The government became vulnerable to the MQM's demands in recent weeks, after a major religious party withdrew its support and joined the opposition. That left the MQM as the government's main ally, at a time when the MQM itself is accused of waging a bloody street battle to maintain control in its urban strongholds. The most public accusations came from a provincial interior minister, who gave a speech last month suggesting the MQM's involvement in extortion and targeted killings.
The MQM complained to the Prime Minister, demanding the official's removal for his scandalous remarks, and eventually pulled out of the coalition despite the official's offer to resign.
The rough politics of Pakistan's southern metropolis are well-known, and the dispute between the two parties might not have broken the coalition if the government weren't already losing support over its economic policies.
Pakistan finds itself in a tough financial position, staggering under the costs of debt payments, the war against militants, and rebuilding after summer floods. The country has had four finance ministers in the past three years.
The International Monetary Fund and the U.S. government have expressed their displeasure with the government's shoddy fiscal management by holding up billions of dollars in transfers until Islamabad satisfies more of its loan conditions. Trying to satisfy those conditions has forced some spectacularly unpopular moves, however, such as raising revenue with a reformed tax law and higher fuel prices.
It was those pocketbook issues, not the quarrel over heavy-handed tactics, that the MQM leadership cited as their reason for finally splitting with the government.