Globe in Ukraine: Nation falls largely quiet as ceasefire takes effect

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The guns fell largely – though not completely – silent across southeastern Ukraine on Sunday, a hopeful sign in a region that has seen little in the way of quiet for almost a year now.

The Ukrainian government said its forces had been shot at 60 times in the first 18 hours of the ceasefire, but residents on both sides of the front line said there had nonetheless been a dramatic drop off in fighting from the previous 24 hours. The calm was particularly shaky around the strategic town of Debaltseve, where a large group of Ukrainian troops remains almost completely surrounded by Russian-backed separatists who claim the ceasefire does not apply to the town, a key transportation hub connecting the main rebel-held cities of Donetsk and Lugansk.

Near another frontline with the rebels, the senior officer of Ukraine's 11th Special Battalion – a collection of exhausted-looking soldiers in mismatching uniforms – said he didn't believe the relative peace would last. Lieutenant-Colonel Vasil Zamkoviy predicted the ceasefire negotiated last week by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko would prove nothing more than a brief pause in what he sees as a war between Russia and Ukraine.

The fate of the ceasefire agreement likely hinges on what happens in the previously unknown Debaltseve, which before the war had been home to about 25,000 people. The rebel definition of the ceasefire means they feel the city falls behind what they consider the ceasefire line and they can shell the already shattered town without breaking the pact, while any Ukrainian attempt to break the siege could be claimed as a violation.

"Of course we can open fire [on Debaltseve]. It is our territory," Eduard Basurin, a senior rebel commander, told Reuters. "The territory is internal: ours. And internal is internal. But along the line of confrontation, there is no shooting."

There are about 8,000 Ukrainian soldiers in the Debaltseve pocket, representing a sizeable chunk of the army's fighting ability.

Russia is accused by Ukraine and NATO of fuelling the 10-month old conflict – which has killed more than 5,400 people – by providing the separatists with weapons, cash and men. The Kremlin has consistently denied the allegation.

"We've witnessed three other ceasefires and they never worked," Lt.-Col. Zamkoviy said. "This one will be the same: We pull back our heavy artillery [one of the key conditions of the accord], and they leave theirs in place and then start shelling again."

As he spoke late Saturday, heavy shelling boomed somewhere nearby, the sounds of what Lt.-Col. Zamkoviy, a 56-year-old veteran who fought for the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, said was a "classic artillery duel" taking place in the last hours before the ceasefire took effect.

Outside the muddy camp where Lt.-Col. Zamkoviy's men make their base near the deserted town of Zhelanne, sat the evidence of other recent battles: two destroyed Ukrainian tanks and another scorched armoured vehicle.

Lt.-Col. Zamkoviy's pessimism was shared at three other Ukrainian military bases The Globe and Mail visited in the hours before the ceasefire. "We don't expect it to be quiet. We're getting ready for a new attack," said Colonel Valery Kurko in the city of Konstantinivka, 30 kilometres from rebel lines.

Russia's Tass news service reported that a 90-truck-long convoy carrying "humanitarian aid" arrived in Donetsk and Lugansk on Sunday. Ukraine has accused Russia of using previous convoys as cover for resupplying the rebels.

French President François Hollande said there had been "generally satisfactory" compliance with the ceasefire on Sunday.

Michael Bociurkiw, spokesman for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which is charged with monitoring the ceasefire, said the pact "was holding but with exceptions." The most notable violations were around Debaltseve, which separatist fighters prevented an OSCE team prevented from reaching.

The start of the ceasefire was supposed to be followed 48 hours later, just past midnight on Monday, by both sides withdrawing their heavy artillery and rocket systems at least 50 kilometres from the front line. That step is to be followed by prisoner exchanges and the introduction of an amnesty for those who took part in the fighting. The vaguely worded agreement calls for the Ukrainian government to introduce constitutional reforms that include giving wide autonomy to the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, with Ukraine only regaining control of the southeastern chunk of its border with Russia at the end of 2015.

As the ceasefire deadline came and went, Saturday and Sunday saw a scrambling effort to deliver boxes of non-lethal aid donated by the Canadian government – winter uniforms and Gore-Tex boots – to the Ukrainian soldiers at the front.

Lt.-Col. Zamkoviy's unit in Zhelanne was among the recipients. "We need weapons more," he sniffed as the boxes were unpacked inside his unit's tent in a muddy field near the town. "Anti-tank weapons, mobile rocket launchers, please. But the uniforms are also helpful."