ESAM OMRAN AL-FETORI
Two nightmare scenarios have loomed over Libya in recent months. The first involved Colonel Moammar Gadhafi clinging to power in Tripoli and provoking an extended civil war. That fear has been dispelled by rebel victories in recent days, but the way rebel spokesmen described those gains had only reinforced concerns about the second nightmare: chaos.
Journalists covering the rebel council have learned to maintain a sense of humour about conflicting statements and inflated claims. On several occasions, press conferences in the rebel stronghold of Benghazi had little bearing on the battlefields hundreds of kilometres away. But the distance between Benghazi and Tripoli never seemed greater than during the surreal series of events this week as the rebels announced the arrest of three sons of Gadhafi, only to admit on Tuesday that two of them had escaped – or, perhaps, had never been fully in custody.
The most high-profile son, Saif al-Islam, revelled in the rebel embarrassment when he appeared at the Rixos hotel in Tripoli and invited journalists on a tour of loyalist enclaves, smiling and pumping his fists.
The rebels had been so certain of Saif's capture, earlier in the day, that their chief leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil issued a statement from Benghazi saying he had "confirmed information" about his arrest. It was a measure of the weight Mr. Jalil's words carry with the international community that chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, followed up two hours later with his own statement confirming the news.
"Saif was captured in Libya," he told reporters. "We have confidential information from different sources that we have within Libya confirming this."
A day later, however, it remained unclear whether Saif had been taken into custody and, if so, how he escaped. He denied ever being captured.
"The ICC can go to hell," he reportedly said. "We are going to break the backbone of the rebels."
Some rebel officials blamed their volunteer fighters' lack of experience with securing a prisoner who would likely have significant means at his disposal: millions of dollars in bribe money and cadres of loyal bodyguards. Some rebels even suggested that Saif had used secret tunnels under a residence where he had apparently been confined to house arrest.
Whatever the case, rebel spokesmen did themselves no favours when the news broke, suggesting that Saif's appearance might be an elaborate hoax and dismissing the eyewitness accounts – and photographs – as lies and propaganda.
Nor have the rebel officials endeared themselves with their other wild statements in the euphoria of recent days.
Libya's former deputy ambassador to the United Nations made headlines with a prediction that the entire country would be in rebel hands within 72 hours. That seemed optimistic, as loyalist cities such as Sirte and Tarhouna remained, at best, contested territory.
As a rule, rebel spokesmen have not appeared to be intentionally deceitful. This set them apart from Col. Gadhafi's mouthpieces, whose misinformation seemed geared for tactical advantage. Some of the rebels' communications problems in recent days can also be blamed on the technical difficulty of getting messages from parts of Libya where electricity is spotty and mobile-phone coverage has been non-existent for weeks. The messy communications can also be interpreted as a side effect of the rebels' stunning success on the battlefield, as fast-moving developments outstrip their ability to talk about them accurately.
That is precisely the worry of the rebels' foreign supporters, however, who fret that the command-and-control in Benghazi may weaken as events unfold at breakneck pace around Tripoli.
Some reports of looting have already emerged, but no suggestion – yet – of revenge killings, something Mr. Jalil spoke against so adamantly that he threatened to resign if rebels indulge in vigilante justice.
Whether such warnings are obeyed in the days ahead will be the more crucial test of Mr. Jalil's words.