Chilean presidential candidate Michelle Bachelet of Nueva Mayoria (New Majority) delivers a speech during her closing campaign rally in Santiago November 14, 2013. Chileans go to the polls in the first round of presidential elections on November 17.STRINGER/CHILE/Reuters
The question is no longer "Who," but "By how much:" Michelle Bachelet is up 30 points in the polls and seems guaranteed to be elected to a second term as president of Chile on Sunday.
The only question left is whether she can pull 50 per cent plus one of the votes, and thus avoid a second round of voting in December.
The socialist Ms. Bachelet has such a decisive lead – the widest in any election since this country made its transition back to democracy in 1990 – that a first-round win seems increasingly likely.
But there are wild cards in this vote: there are nine candidates, the first time the field has ever been so crowded. None ever had a serious shot at winning, but they have deeply loyal constituencies, such as that of Roxana Miranda, a seamstress from the slums who is the first ever such blue-collar candidate. And they will pull away votes, mostly from Ms. Bachelet.
In addition, this is the first time that voting is not mandatory, and the question of turnout is a complete wildcard.
Ms. Bachelet will be carried by her personal popularity – she finished office the first time in 2010 with approval ratings above 80 per cent. She is seen to have a combination of great technical competence and relatability: she talks with audiences about her life as a single mother, about trying not to gain weight, about living with her own mom.
Ms. Matthei on the other hand was a last-minute fill-in candidate who lacks the support of the hard right, which she needs, and also Ms. Bachelet's charisma. Some analysts suggest that the current president, Sebastian Pinera, put her forward precisely because he wanted someone weak to lose badly, better positioning himself for a second run at power in 2017. (The Chilean constitution says a president cannot serve a second term consecutively.)
Mr. Pinera's government was the first right-wing one elected since the end of the military dictatorship in 1990, and while the economy continued to grow, he failed to appease growing demands of greater social inclusion and equality here. The right itself is badly fragmented between those who are fiscal conservatives but social moderates, and the more old-school hard right that speaks in favour of preserving the systems pioneered under the dictatorship. Ms. Matthei is of the former camp – but has hardened many of her public positions in an unsuccessful attempt to win over the far right of her party.
The dominant issue in this election is addressing inequality, which has only widened as Chile's economy has quadrupled in size since the return to democracy. The World Bank puts average Chilean income at $21,500 per year, or $86,000 for a family of four. But in fact two-thirds of families live on less than $15,000 a year.
Ms. Bachelet is pledging health, education and pension reform, and has the endorsement of the private sector to do it. However, her agenda on individual rights – which includes legalization of abortion and gay marriage – will likely be blocked by her some of her more conservative coalition partners.
Ms. Bachelet's coalition this time ranges from hard-left Communists to the conservative Christian Democrats – a recipe for stagnation, said Guillermo Holzmann, a professor of political science at the University of Valparaiso. "She doesn't need all these people from a political perspective but she needs them for social reasons – it would be more pragmatic to pick one or two partners – that would get results – but that's not her image. She favours a collaborative, inclusive approach. But this time she may need to try something else."
On the social issues, Mr. Pinera will ironically be missed by the left: his government introduced legislation to allow gay and lesbian couples civil unions (a vote is still pending); Ms. Bachelet promised marriage equality in her first term but did nothing with it.
And while Ms. Bachelet is a committed feminist, Mr. Pinera's term in office would seem to have produced more progress for women that Ms. Bachelet's did. He has appointed many women to senior positions, brought Chilean women a long-promised six months of maternity leave, and legalized the morning-after pill. (Ms. Bachelet is once again saying she wants to see abortion legalized, but will never get that past her coalition; even the Communists oppose it.)