Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based journalist
An international court in The Hague has ruled that China's trump card in its claims in the South China Sea, as depicted in a nine-dash-line shown on official maps enclosing up to 90 per cent of the waters, has no legal validity in an arbitration case brought by the Philippines.
The Chinese government has tried to have the best of both worlds – by citing the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea when it was in its interest, and citing history when its claims ran counter to what is laid down in that treaty. Thus, China has asserted a 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone from its coast since 1996, as granted by the law, but denies neighbouring countries enjoyment of their zones by claiming historical rights in some of those areas.
In a sweeping decision, the Permanent Court of Arbitration asserted that "any historic rights China may have had in the waters of the South China Sea beyond its territorial sea were extinguished by the adoption of the convention and in customary law of the concept of the exclusive economic zone." That is to say, when China ratified the convention in 1996, it automatically lost the right to argue that it had historic rights.
In another blow to China, the tribunal also ruled that none of the features in the Spratly Islands – claimed in whole by China, Vietnam and Taiwan – made them islands in the technical sense, but were either low-tide elevations with no territorial claims or rocks that cannot sustain human habitation on their own, and therefore are not an economic zone.
China was clearly prepared for an adverse ruling and reacted strongly, with a statement by President Xi Jinping, a foreign ministry statement, a foreign minister's statement and a white paper titled "China Adheres to the Position of Settling Through Negotiation the Relevant Disputes Between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea."
But despite China's hardline stance of rejecting the tribunal's ruling, and the legitimacy of the tribunal itself, the message that it sent out was that it was open to negotiations. Foreign Minister Wang Yi, while calling the tribunal proceedings "a farce," went on to say that it's "time that things come back to normal."
Moreover, the new Philippine administration of President Rodrigo Duterte did not adopt a triumphant tone, instead emphasizing its desire for good relations with China while the foreign secretary called for "restraint and sobriety." China, for its part, has been careful to note that the case against it had been "unilaterally initiated by the former government of the Philippines."
While the atmosphere is much more positive than it was a month ago – before Benigno Aquino III stepped down as president – China won't be willing to adopt the tribunal's findings as the basis of talks. That is to say, it will insist that Manila set aside the ruling if talks are to be held.
The tribunal's ruling has also brought legal clarity to the various South China Sea claimants. In their future dealings with China, countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia will know that China's claims in fact have little or no legal validity, and they will have a stronger moral position when objecting to Chinese actions in their exclusive economic zones. If need be, these countries can also consider bringing their own cases against China. The ruling also has implications for Japan. Both China and Japan now know that Senkaku, or Diaoyu, islands are mere rocks and sovereignty won't mean ownership of the resource-rich seabed around a 200-mile radius.
The United States, too, is now on firmer legal ground when conducting freedom of navigation operations, since the tribunal has found China's island-building to be in breach of the convention, not least because its land reclamation and construction has caused "severe, irreparable harm to the coral reef ecosystem."
Despite China's claim that dozens of countries are on its side, so far those that have commented on the ruling, including the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and India, have all called on both sides to respect the decision. Not a single leader has joined China in calling the tribunal illegitimate. Underneath its brave face, China knows that by defying the world it has wounded itself.