Container ships are loaded and unloaded at the TSI Terminal Systems Inc at Deltaport in Delta, BC, August 05, 2010.Lyle Stafford for the Globe and Mail
Canada has spent years - and a considerable amount of money - trying to convince exporters to look beyond the mighty U.S. market and seek customers in fast-growing emerging economies, such as China, India and Brazil.
And to some extent, it has worked. The United States accounted for 75 per cent of total exports last year, down from 85 per cent in the mid-1990s.
But a new forecast of long-term export trends by the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade suggests the United States will still be our dominant merchandise export destination in 2040, grabbing virtually an identical share as today, at 75.5 per cent.
"Despite the rapid growth in emerging economies, the United States remains a large and wealthy market that is right next door to Canada, whereas emerging markets are a significant distance away," according to the report, Canada's State of Trade 2010. "In short, proximity is important."
The forecast, which combines a model of trade patterns and private-sector country growth estimates, does show that Canada will shuffle the deck of its other top export destinations. And the big winners are China (to 2nd from 3rd spot), India (to 4th from 10th), Brazil (to 9th from 15th) and Spain (to 12th from 20th).
Slipping in rank by 2040 will be countries such as Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands.
The report also tallied inward and outward investment flows. And not surprisingly, the U.S. is also Canada's leading source of foreign direct investment, or FDI. In 2010, the stock of U.S. investment here was $306-billion.
The next leading providers of FDI are the Netherlands ($51.7-billion), Britain ($42.2-billion), Switzerland ($20.4-billion) and France ($19-billion). China ranks 7th at $14-billion.
The leading destinations for Canadian investment abroad are the U.S. ($250-billion), Britain ($70.2-billion), Barbados ($51.7-billion), Ireland ($21.5-billion) and Australia ($21-billion).