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Xi Jinping swept the presidential vote in China on March 14. No wonder – there was only one candidate on the ballot presented to nearly 3,000 lawmakers. The question now is what sort of leader he will be. How he handles these five short-term issues will give clues as to China's direction over the next decade.
1. Japan. A dispute over the tiny Diaoyu/Senkaku islands will be an early test of Xi's commitment to China's "peaceful rise". Deng Xiaoping, who put China on the path to economic openness, went to war with Vietnam in 1979, but it was the exception rather than the rule. Both China and Japan have engaged in sabre-rattling. An assertive strategy from Xi may be a sign he's tough enough to push through reform at home, but an aggressive one would bode ill for growth and stability in the whole region.
2. Hacking. China and the United States are at loggerheads over cyber attacks, some of which President Obama says are state sponsored. The dispute isn't just about right or wrong, but about the economic role of the state. What America sees as unfair play or aggression, China may view as justified defence. A trade war remains unlikely – both sides have too much to lose – but Xi's handling of the issue may indicate whether China wants to play by globally accepted rules or rewrite them.
3. Bo Xilai. The disgraced party chief of Chongqing is still awaiting trial, with no official charges announced. A tough punishment would set an example to those who challenge the political order, as Bo did with his populist politics. It would also reduce the chances that Bo one day makes a comeback. But too harsh a verdict would add to concerns about China's inadequate legal system.
4. Corruption. Xi has already spoken out against corruption. So far, measures have focused on highly visible but cosmetic abuses: officials with expensive watches and excessive banqueting habits. But what really drains the economy is deeper graft, capital flight and misappropriation. Officials in parts of Guangzhou province have volunteered to disclose their assets. Rolling out that kind of policy may create a chaotic sell-off at first, but more sustainable growth in future.
5. Mrs Xi. Peng Liyuan, the new First Lady, may make an appearance in her own right when Xi visits South Africa, the Financial Times reported on March 14. Peng, a well-known folk singer, could give China's leadership a human face. Foreign audiences may be puzzled by her military, patriotic style, while older Chinese may recall with dismay Mao Zedong's ill-fated first lady, Jiang Qing. But a role for Peng could herald a more open, engaged style of government.
These short term issues matter less than questions of broader reform. What really matters is whether China can reduce inequality or become a consumer-led economy. But they are linked. Even if the vote that elevated Xi looked nearly unanimous, his support may not be. If Xi can navigate these thorny issues at home without alienating trade partners, then just maybe he can tackle bigger changes too.