The Toronto Blue Jays are facing a possible future without the two sluggers who have anchored their long-ball-driven offence since at least 2010. If one or both of first baseman Edwin Encarnacion or right fielder Jose Bautista signs with another team in free agency, they would leave huge holes in Toronto's offence.
Team president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins have already taken steps to occupy vacant spots in the batting order by signing designated hitter Kendrys Morales – but that doesn't mean their job is done (although he remains a free agent, outfielder Michael Saunders is also expected to sign elsewhere: another hole to fill).
The Globe and Mail has analyzed the relevant options on the free agent market in an effort to identify run-producers who might offer the best value. We acknowledge that offensive output is just one of several factors the Blue Jays' front office must consider when deciding how to configure their lineup, but this narrow view still yields some interesting insights. Namely: How best to replace 51 Runs Above Replacement (Jose + EE) in 2017, without surrendering anything on the trade market (though certain free-agent signings would require the Jays to give up a draft pick).
We relied on three variables in our analysis:
- Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), a stat used to determine a player’s offensive output regardless of league or ballpark;
- a player’s projected market value for the 2017 season: either the market value for one year as determined by Spotrac, or the average salary over the length of the player’s previous contract in cases where Spotrac made no projection;
- Volatility (VOL), which seeks to quantify the consistency of a player’s performance during the season. Low-volatility run-producers can be counted on to deliver on a daily basis, the perfect counterbalance to the streaky hitters in the Toronto lineup (such as Russell Martin or Kevin Pillar).
Our list of options includes free-agent non-pitchers who played a minimum of 100 games in 2016, and could fill a position of need should the Jays lose Encarnacion and/or Bautista. This restricts the group to first basemen, outfielders and designated hitters. For comparison, Encarnacion and Bautista are also on the list. Here are all the players, plotted on a scatterplot graph (salary vs. wRC+), with circles weighted by VOL.
Plotting possible free-agent replacements for Jose and Edwin
The scatterplot below (hover or tap to reveal player details) charts MLB free agents’ expected market value (or 2016 salary, in cases where Spotrac didn't calculate a value) against their run production in 2016. Better consistency is indicated by a smaller marker, per Bill Petti's VOL metric. Removing defensive considerations, if the Jays are looking to buy runs to replace Encarnacion and Bautista, these are the players they’ll be looking at. (Two of them are already off the market: Kendrys Morales signed with Toronto, and Josh Reddick signed with Houston.)
The bottom area of the chart represents the not-especially-productive options, which grow more expensive as you move to the right. Ryan Howard, a former NL MVP likely to command a high price, fits the bill, as does Colby Rasmus with his unquestionable talent and defensive excellence, but high offensive volatility.
The bottom-left area of the chart indicates players who don't cost much, but who don't offer much on the offensive side of the diamond. It's where you'll find the likes of Peter Bourjos, Ryan Raburn and Nolan Reimold, and you'll know the Jays have struck out in free agency if they end up signing any of these players.
By filtering the list a little we can see who are the real run producers of the group.
Players with a high wRC+
140
130
Matt Joyce
Yoenis
Cespedes
120
Mark
Trumbo
110
100
90
Less
volatile
80
More
volatile
70
wRC+
Market value, in U.S. dollars
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
$30M
Players with a high wRC+
140
Yoenis
Cespedes
130
Matt Joyce
120
110
Mark
Trumbo
100
90
Less
volatile
80
More
volatile
70
wRC+
Market value, in U.S. dollars
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
$30M
Players with a high wRC+
140
130
Matt Joyce
Yoenis
Cespedes
120
Mark
Trumbo
110
100
90
Less
volatile
80
More
volatile
70
wRC+
Market value, in U.S. dollars
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
$30M
Players with a high wRC+
140
Yoenis
Cespedes
130
Matt Joyce
120
Mark
Trumbo
110
100
90
Less
volatile
80
More
volatile
70
wRC+
Market value, in U.S. dollars
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
$30M
Free agents with a wRC+ of 120 or higher (that is, 20% more productive than a league average player): Matt Joyce, Dexter Fowler, Mark Trumbo, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Carlos Beltran, Yoenis Cespedes.
Let's explore three of these players in greater detail, with an eye on their power numbers (because Rogers Centre).
Yoenis Cespedes
LF
31 years old
Bats right
.272/.325/.494
Encarnacion
2016
home runs
31
Cespedes
Bautista
Encarnacion
Yoenis Cespedes
LF
31 years old
Bats right
.272/.325/.494
31
2016
home runs
Cespedes
Bautista
Encarnacion
Yoenis Cespedes
LF
31 years old
Bats right
.272/.325/.494
2016
home runs
31
Cespedes
Bautista
Yoenis Cespedes
LF
31 years old
Bats right
.272/.325/.494
Encarnacion
31
2016
home runs
Cespedes
Bautista
If money were no object, it's clear who the Jays would pursue once their superstars decided to move on. Yoenis Cespedes has established himself as an all-star outfielder in both leagues, displaying the kind of power that would make him an instant hit (get it?) at Rogers Centre. He was in line for a $23.75-million salary with the New York Mets in 2017, but exercised his right to opt out of the rest of his deal. He's hoping to sign for a term that's longer than the two years that were left on his last contract – and he'll likely get it, at a pricetag the Jays probably can't afford.
Matt Joyce
OF
32 years old
Bats left
.242/.403/.463
2016
home runs
13
Joyce
Matt Joyce
OF
32 years old
Bats left
.242/.403/.463
2016
home runs
13
Joyce
Matt Joyce
OF
32 years old
Bats left
.242/.403/.463
2016
home runs
13
Joyce
Matt Joyce
OF
32 years old
Bats left
.242/.403/.463
2016
home runs
13
Joyce
He's not necessarily an everyday player any more, and his numbers don't pop out at you unless you pay attention to advanced stats, but Matt Joyce is an intriguing option on the market. The 2011 AL all-star was a bust after he was traded to Anaheim, but rebuilt his career last season with Pittsburgh as a sort of utility outfielder. His career slashline against right-handers is a very attractive .252/.353/.449, including a .406 OBP in his bounce-back 2016 season. Joyce is in line for a raise, but nothing outrageous. He could be a great fit if the Jays decide they need a left-handed hitter to serve in an outfield platoon with, say, Melvin Upton, Jr.
Mark Trumbo
OF
30 years old
Bats right
.251/.303/.473
47
Trumbo
2016
home runs
Trumbo
47
Mark Trumbo
OF
30 years old
Bats right
.251/.303/.473
2016
home runs
47
Mark Trumbo
OF
30 years old
Bats right
.251/.303/.473
Trumbo
2016
home runs
47
Trumbo
Mark Trumbo
OF
30 years old
Bats right
.251/.303/.473
2016
home runs
Rogers Centre is a comfortable home for power hitters, and if his 47-home-run campaign with Baltimore last year is any indication, Mark Trumbo is clearly able to handle AL East pitchers. But aside from those eye-popping longball numbers, it's hard to see what he would bring to the Blue Jays. He bats right (like most Jays), normally plays designated hitter (the preferred slot for Morales), and doesn't walk much. He's also likely to command a hefty salary with those HR totals. The Jays can do better.
Filtering the list in a different way highlights the less volatile members of the group.
Less volatile players
140
Dexter Fowler
130
Mike
Napoli
120
110
Ian
Desmond
100
90
Less
volatile
80
More
volatile
70
wRC+
Market value, in U.S. dollars
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
$30M
Less volatile players
140
Dexter Fowler
130
Mike Napoli
120
110
Ian Desmond
100
90
Less
volatile
80
More
volatile
70
wRC+
Market value, in U.S. dollars
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
$30M
Less volatile players
140
Dexter Fowler
130
Mike
Napoli
120
110
Ian
Desmond
100
90
Less
volatile
80
More
volatile
70
wRC+
Market value, in U.S. dollars
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
$30M
Less volatile players
140
Dexter Fowler
130
Mike Napoli
120
110
Ian Desmond
100
90
Less
volatile
80
More
volatile
70
wRC+
Market value, in U.S. dollars
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
$30M
Free agents with a VOL below .650 (that is, less variation in their performance from game to game): Dexter Fowler, Jose Bautista, Angel Pagan, Yoenis Cespedes, Carlos Beltran, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders, Mike Napoli, Ian Desmond.
Consistency is the goal here: a player who can contribute to the team's offence on a predictable basis, series by series. Let's look at a few low-volatility options, and check their potential based on whether they tend to stay healthy over a 162-game season.
Dexter Fowler
OF
30 years old
Bats both
.276/.393/.447
Games played
162 games
125
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
‘15
2016
Games played
162 games
Dexter Fowler
OF
30 years old
Bats both
.276/.393/.447
125
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Games played
162 games
Dexter Fowler
OF
30 years old
Bats both
.276/.393/.447
125
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
‘15
2016
Games played
162 games
Dexter Fowler
OF
30 years old
Bats both
.276/.393/.447
125
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Dexter Fowler's combination of speed, pop, ability to get on base and ability to hit from both sides of the plate make him a prime target for a number of teams. He'll command a handsome, multi-year contract, though likely not at the level of Cespedes. Fowler, however, is more consistent and tends to stay healthier. He's never made fewer than 492 plate appearances in a season. He'd provide a different look for the Jays' offence – speed over power – but his dependability could be just what Atkins and Shapiro are looking for.
Mike Napoli
1B
35 years old
Bats right
.239/.335/.465
Games played
162 games
150
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
‘15
2016
Games played
162 games
Mike Napoli
1B
35 years old
Bats right
.239/.335/.465
150
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Games played
162 games
Mike Napoli
1B
35 years old
Bats right
.239/.335/.465
150
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
‘15
2016
Games played
162 games
Mike Napoli
1B
35 years old
Bats right
.239/.335/.465
150
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Players on the wrong side of 35 (and not named David Ortiz) tend to decline as run producers until they're ready to retire. Mike Napoli bucked that trend in 2016 and drove in 101 runs with 34 homers, both career highs. He produced consistently enough to make this low-volatility list and helped lead his team to the World Series. And yet, Cleveland decided not to make him a qualifying offer. He only missed 12 games in 2016, but there's a lot of mileage on those 35-year-old legs, including 511 career games at catcher. Don't be fooled by his 2016 consistency: Napoli isn't a good enough fielder to find a spot in the Jays' lineup, and his body is about to break down.
Ian Desmond
OF
31 years old
Bats right
.285/.335/.446
Games played
162 games
156
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
‘15
2016
Games played
162 games
Ian Desmond
OF
31 years old
Bats right
.285/.335/.446
156
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Games played
162 games
Ian Desmond
OF
31 years old
Bats right
.285/.335/.446
156
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
‘15
2016
Games played
162 games
Ian Desmond
OF
31 years old
Bats right
.285/.335/.446
156
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Much like Michael Saunders in the Blue Jays' outfield last year, Ian Desmond played at an all-star level in the first half of the season before a long swoon into October. The cons against him are notable: He's a converted shortstop who hasn't mastered playing the outfield, he was qualified by his former team so would cost the Jays a draft pick if they signed him, and he strikes out a little too much. But he was also good for 3.3 wins above replacement for Texas in 2016, can add a speed dimension to the offence (518 career stolen bases), and has missed more than eight games due to injury in a season only once. If the price is right, Desmond is worth a long look.
Our final consideration is performance against opposite-handed pitchers.
Players who succeed against opposite-
handed pitching
140
Carlos Beltran
130
Pedro
Alvarez
120
Brandon
Moss
110
100
90
Less
volatile
80
More
volatile
70
wRC+
Market value, in U.S. dollars
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
$30M
Players who succeed against opposite-handed pitching
140
Carlos Beltran
130
120
Pedro Alvarez
110
Brandon Moss
100
90
Less
volatile
80
More
volatile
70
wRC+
Market value, in U.S. dollars
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
$30M
Players who succeed against opposite-handed pitching
140
Carlos Beltran
130
Pedro
Alvarez
120
110
Brandon
Moss
100
90
Less
volatile
80
More
volatile
70
wRC+
Market value, in U.S. dollars
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
$30M
Players who succeed against opposite-handed pitching
140
Carlos Beltran
130
120
Pedro Alvarez
110
Ian Desmond
Brandon Moss
100
90
Less
volatile
80
More
volatile
70
wRC+
Market value, in U.S. dollars
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
$30M
Free agents whose wRC+ vs. opposite-handed pitchers is above 110: Matt Joyce, Carlos Beltran, Yoenis Cespedes, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Dexter Fowler, Pedro Alvarez, Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, Angel Pagan, Ian Desmond.
It's no secret the Jays fielded a lineup loaded with right-handed hitters in 2016, but the real issue was how bad those righties were against southpaw pitchers (18th in the majors in wOBA at .323), and how bad the few left-handed hitters were against righties (29th at .295). So, how does this crop of free agents stack up against opposite-handed pitchers? That's the kind of balance that's needed in the lineup.
Carlos Beltran
OF
39 years old
Bats both
.295/.337/.513
League
average
Blue Jays
average
Batting left
versus right-
handed pitchers
Beltran
Batting right
versus left-
handed pitchers
Blue Jays
average
League
average
Carlos Beltran
OF
39 years old
Bats both
.295/.337/.513
Batting left versus
right-handed pitchers
Beltran
Batting right versus
left-handed pitchers
League
average
Blue Jays
average
Batting left
versus right-
handed pitchers
Carlos Beltran
OF
39 years old
Bats both
.295/.337/.513
Beltran
Batting right
versus left-
handed pitchers
Blue Jays
average
League
average
Carlos Beltran
OF
39 years old
Bats both
.295/.337/.513
Batting left versus
right-handed pitchers
Beltran
Batting right versus
left-handed pitchers
A switch-hitter who prefers to hit from the left but can produce against both types of pitchers, Carlos Beltran will turn 40 shortly after the season begins but can still play. His fWAR of 2.3 in 2016 put him 8th among all available free agent hitters this winter. He's a veteran presence on his way to the Hall of Fame, and he'll be seeking a modest multi-year contract.
Pedro Alvarez
DH
29 years old
Bats left
.249/.322/.504
Batting left versus
right-handed
pitchers
Alvarez
Pedro Alvarez
DH
29 years old
Bats left
.249/.322/.504
Alvarez
Batting left versus
right-handed pitchers
Pedro Alvarez
DH
29 years old
Bats left
.249/.322/.504
Batting left versus
right-handed
pitchers
Alvarez
Pedro Alvarez
DH
29 years old
Bats left
.249/.322/.504
Alvarez
Batting left versus
right-handed pitchers
Left-handed hitter Pedro Alvarez is a designated hitter who hits righties at a rate of .251/.326/.522. Kendrys Morales, whom the Jays signed on Nov. 11, is a switch-hitting DH who hits lefties at a rate of .330/.369/.560. The Jays have already invested $11-million a year in Morales, but if Alvarez can be had cheaply (say, near the end of the free agency period), what a wonderful DH platoon these two would make.
Brandon Moss
1B/OF
33 years old
Bats left
.225/.300/.484
Batting left versus
right-handed
pitchers
Moss
Brandon Moss
1B/OF
33 years old
Bats left
.225/.300/.484
Moss
Batting left versus
right-handed pitchers
Brandon Moss
1B/OF
33 years old
Bats left
.225/.300/.484
Batting left versus
right-handed
pitchers
Moss
Brandon Moss
1B/OF
33 years old
Bats left
.225/.300/.484
Moss
Batting left versus
right-handed pitchers
Because the Blue Jays are always interested in acquiring players with plus power, Brandon Moss (28 homers in 2016) is on this list. He's 33 but can still log innings at first base or the outfield, and best of all he mashes righties from the left side of the plate (119 career HRs in that situation). Looks like a good fit as a platoon partner with Upton, if the price is right.
The final decision for the Jays' front office will depend on a whole variety of factors: Do Encarnacion and Bautista both leave, or just one? Will a free-agent signing come at the cost of a draft pick? Are there better options available via trade? What are the defensive capabilities of a potential newcomer? How would he fit in the dressing room, and does his off-field behaviour pose any problems for the marketing department? But from a run-producing standpoint, there appear to be three options that offer the best bang for the Blue Jays' buck, depending on need: Matt Joyce as a pure run-producer on the cheap, Dexter Fowler for consistent performance at a high level, or an inexpensive veteran who can serve as part of a platoon.
Data sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, Spotrac, Bill Petti.