Climate change, at last, is now seen by most major countries as an issue deserving significant investment and co-operation across political boundaries. Governments, including Canada's, are finally treating climate as a matter of top urgency deserving big, expensive actions.
But the danger, as we approach the UN climate-policy summit in Paris in two weeks, is that climate will continue to be seen as an isolated issue that competes with others for policy attention and spending. The other two looming global issues – stalled economic growth and the hundreds of millions remaining in absolute poverty – are also devastating problems that are still seen by many, including some environmentalists, as competitors or even as antagonists (there's still a belief that more growth or less poverty means more emissions).
But there's been another revolution in understanding: Economic growth, poverty reduction and climate solutions are now understood by many as being tightly interwoven, working together. There are two facets:
1. Reducing carbon emissions. We need to get global warming below a rise of 2 C, and much of the action in Paris will be around realizing the pledges made by most countries to cut their emissions to levels that would keep warming below this threshold.
This will be very expensive. A report last month by the International Energy Agency contained the good news that the pledges cover 90 per cent of the world's carbon emissions and involve a doubling of renewable-energy use that would, if realized fully, stop power-generation emissions from increasing and play a big part in keeping warming below 2 C (but not quite take us there). But this would require the 150 pledging countries together to spend $840-billion (U.S.) every year until 2030, for a total of $13.5-trillion.
Some countries are already doing this. The two biggest carbon emitters, the United States and China, are both replacing all coal generation (and they both had a lot) with atmosphere-friendly gas and nuclear. But this dirtiest form of generation remains one of the biggest greenhouse-gas contributors, and some countries, notably India, have no prospect of eliminating this power source without major, expensive interventions. (Canada still gets about 12 per cent of its power through coal.)
Expecting these countries to reduce consumption is unrealistic: Rising growth will end poverty and, significantly, population growth, but it will also give them the resources they need to pay for climate protection and carbon reduction. Basket-case countries, deprived of growth, won't be part of the solution.
Instead, a big intervention is needed to convert India, Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa to nuclear and alternative-energy electricity sources. Nuclear will need to be a big part of this: Variable-output sources such as solar and wind can account for only 20 per cent of electrical production. One recent analysis found that meeting the 2 C target will cost 20 per cent more without nuclear-energy expansion; another found that attempts at non-nuclear climate solutions would have major adverse environmental effects.
The World Resources Institute already estimates that a 438-per-cent increase in financing – to $140-billion annually from $26-billion – will be needed just to achieve the current global goals. Economic growth will be vitally important in meeting them.
2. Protecting the vulnerable. Even if we meet the 2 C target, there will be adverse effects: rising ocean levels, croplands pushed into marginality. Big investments will be needed in seawalls (only London and Venice have robust technology in place) and in engineered crops designed to grow in more challenging climates.
Those most vulnerable to climate change, in all regions, are the very poor and rural. Therefore, a big part of reducing climate-change damage lies in reducing the number of people in poverty. A major new study this week from the World Bank concludes that poverty alleviation is among the most important investments in climate adaptation, affecting 100 million people.
But the flip side of this is that emission-reduction policies and investments can play a major role in reducing poverty and climate vulnerability.
Many countries, alarmed by a stalled global economy, are already planning big investments and stimulus programs to spur growth. Others are using aid and public spending to try to end the last vestiges of absolute poverty. What we need to realize, coming into Paris, is that these are also part of the climate solution.
Doug Saunders