What do new American conservatives really want?

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If Freud were a U.S. pundit he would be preoccupied with one question: What do these new American conservatives want?

The answer isn't easy, for there are as many responses as there are conservatives – in the House of Representatives, where their power has upended a centuries-old institution; in the presidential race, where retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson raised an astonishing $20-million (U.S.) in the quarter ending Sept. 30; and in big cities and small towns across the United States, where a new brand of muscular conservatives are asserting themselves.

This flowering of conservatism comes at a peculiar juncture in U.S. history, after an African-American with plainly liberal views is completing his second term and when the principal candidates to succeed him in the Democratic Party are in a competition to move left on issues such as income disparity, climate change and protection of the prerogatives of organized labour. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, an avowed socialist, raised $26-million in the quarter ending Sept. 30, and added $1.3-million in the first four hours after last week's televised debate in Las Vegas.

Part of this phenomenon is easily explained. Those who vote (and contribute) in primaries and caucuses tend to lean – sometimes mildly, sometimes markedly – to the extremes, with the Republicans moving to the right before their nomination fight ends and the Democrats moving to the left. Traditionally they tack to the middle once the midsummer nominating conventions are completed, hoping to win undecided voters in the middle.

Right there is the crux of the new conservatives' complaint with the Republican Party. The candidates did just that – move to the centre – in elections in 1992, 1996, 2008 and 2012, and the result in all four cases was a Republican defeat. The new conservatives don't want the Republican Party to nominate moderates like former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the 2012 general election candidate, because they believe it is a betrayal of their ideology and a doomed election strategy.

Besides, in this polarized era, the number of voters who are in the middle and who are undecided may be smaller than usual.

The conservatives' model is Ronald Reagan, who did not sway from the right in his 1980 or 1984 campaigns and as a result gave new life to conservatism, which had been discredited by the 1964 election debacle by Barry Goldwater, who lost 44 states.

And the passion and power they bring to this conviction is reflected in the changing character of the Republican Party. In 1990, according to last month's Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, 12 per cent of Republicans described themselves as "very conservative."

This fall, the rate hit 28 per cent. The rate of Republicans who considered themselves "somewhat liberal" or "very liberal" fell by more than half in that period; today only 6 per cent of Republicans fall into either category.

On Friday, the Washington-based conservative think tank Heritage Foundation announced it had raised $1-million with the following appeal: "For too long, the Washington Establishment has gotten away with doing whatever they please. They've rammed their liberal agenda down Americans' throats, labelling it 'moderation' and 'compromise.'"

In recent weeks, conservatives have focused their attention on the House, where insurgents have asserted their power and forced Speaker John Boehner of Ohio to announce his retirement – one of the successes the Heritage Foundation cited in its funding appeal.

The struggle to succeed Mr. Boehner has become either a test of power or a self-defeating spectacle, depending on analysts' point of view. In any case, the failure of the GOP House to resolve this issue crisply could raise serious questions about the Republicans' ability to govern and could redound to the party's disadvantage in the presidential election in November, 2016. That's the worry of party regulars.

The conservatives' priorities are spelled out clearly in a questionnaire they sent to possible candidates for the speakership. Repeal Obamacare. Eliminate the Export-Import Bank. End funding of Planned Parenthood. Reject new taxes. And impose several structural changes that would assure that conservatives have important positions on congressional committees and have greater opportunities to shape legislation both before it reaches the House floor and once it is under active House consideration.

In some ways, the conservatives have already won. The Republican Party once had a liberal and a conservative wing and, as the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows, the party now has far more ideological consistency. (The same can be said for the Democrats, which once had a strong conservative element, based primarily in the South but with impact across the country and outsized power in the Congress.) The last Republican president, George W. Bush, was a true conservative, often preferring policies more congruent with Mr. Reagan than with his father, George H.W. Bush.

A final word about the presidential race. Right now the conservatives – Dr. Carson; former high-tech executive Carly Fiorina; Senator Ted Cruz of Texas – have money and, in some cases, momentum. The more moderate Republicans – former governor Jeb Bush of Florida and Governors John Kasich of Ohio and Chris Christie of New Jersey – seemed stalled.

But this is October and there is a long way to go. Republicans have had struggles for the soul of their party before. They are having one again. This one has broad implications for the future of both the conservative movement and the Republican Party, raising the question of whether they truly are one in the same thing. That's the biggest long-term question in American politics, and the answer seems increasingly clear.