An oil pump jack in a field near Calgary in 2014.Todd Korol/Reuters
The Globe and Mail is hosting a debate on the economy among the leaders of the three main political parties on Thursday at 8 pm (ET). Click here for more details.
Many voters will have their pocketbooks front of mind as they choose Canada's next government. The Globe asked six experts about the winner's top economic challenge.
Laura Dawson
Director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington
As a small economy in a globalized world, Canada has a narrow band of action. It can do little about world commodity prices or exchange rates. But our next leader can help open new markets and improve the rules of the game for Canadian enterprises. Our next prime minister must think strategically about where the global economic "puck" is going, not where it's been. Attempting to rebuild the economy of the 1970s through protectionism will not work. The new leader must focus on competitiveness, productivity, innovation, diversification and aggressive pursuit of new markets.
Lindsay Tedds
Associate professor, School of Public Administration, University of Victoria
The biggest challenge will be to ensure a strong revenue base without jeopardizing economic growth. This is achieved by minimizing distortions within the tax system and removing barriers to growth for everyone. It means no longer pandering to specific sectors or activities by ending all targeted supports and relief and, instead, simplifying the tax system, lowering rates and broadening the base.
Avery Shenfeld
Chief economist, CIBC, Toronto
A fall fiscal update could require adjustments to either deficit targets or spending. The United Nations climate-change conference begins in November, and one election question still unanswered is the extent to which any party's carbon targets will impinge on energy-sector growth, or if the reductions can be achieved elsewhere.
Another issue is whether permanent immigration will be ramped up to fill the gap left after the tightening of the temporary foreign worker program. And with Toronto and Vancouver house prices still climbing, Ottawa will have to decide whether it wants to wade in with new restraints on mortgages or foreign buying.
Ailish Campbell
Vice-president, policy, international and fiscal issues, Canadian Council of Chief Executives, Ottawa
The top international challenge is that commodity prices will remain down for an uncertain length of time. This affects business investment and jobs, and government revenues. Non-energy exports haven't filled in the gap in exports as fast as hoped, and Canada is losing market share in the United States. Strategies that worked in the past, like a low dollar, won't be enough. We need a competitive mindset that prioritizes talent, embraces risk and innovation, and breaks down barriers to companies that want to grow global from Canada.
Todd Hirsch
Chief economist, ATB Financial, Calgary
One of the most pressing economic challenges in the coming years – one I hear no party commenting on – is growing income inequality. Unemployment in resource and manufacturing is a broader problem, but these sectors are delivering a disproportionately nasty hit to the lowest-skilled and -educated in our country. It's a huge problem that will require more than affordable daycare or another tax credit to solve.
Jordan Brennan
Economist, Unifor, Toronto
New strategies for stimulating investment. As prime minister, Stephen Harper has focused on corporate tax cuts, trade deals, deregulation and resource extraction. The results: historically low business investment, corporate cash hoarding and chronically weak job creation and GDP growth.
The next government needs to stimulate private and public investment in a broader range of sectors through a suite of policies: targeted strategies to nurture export industries, reforming business taxation to reward innovation and job creation, and investing heavily in infrastructure.