Canucks a win away from the conference finals, poised to extinguish Oilers’ Stanley Cup hopes

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In this era of ubiquitous sports gambling, everyone knows how hard it is to predict the future. So it’s not entirely fair to turn an eye to last October, as the NHL season began, but it’s an interesting look at what seemed so likely seven months ago.

Of 20 Sportsnet hockey journalists, half foresaw Connor McDavid leading the Edmonton Oilers to a Stanley Cup title.

Certainty of the Oilers’ destiny continued into this month, as Edmonton was set to face the Vancouver Canucks in the second round of the postseason. The surprise Canucks had home-ice advantage, having topped Edmonton to win the Pacific Division, but of 24 ESPN prognosticators, 23 picked the Oilers. Most figured it would be a tidy five- or six-game series.

The series has been the opposite of tidy: it’s a raucous slugfest, the teams alternating wins, five one-goal games, the past two decided in the final minute of regulation. And it is not the Oilers in control. The Canucks are up 3-2 as the Oilers host a pivotal Game 6 on Saturday in Edmonton. It’s a good bet it’ll be an excellent hockey night in Canada, with Vancouver one win away from its first conference final since 2011, when it came up one win short of the Stanley Cup.

But given this series, predicting how Game 6 might turn out feels like random guessing. Each time this series gave off the suggestion that one team had momentum – such as after the dominance of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in Game 2 – what actually took place next seemed to have little connection to the previous game.

What’s certain is the Oilers head back to Edmonton after an odd showing in a crucial Game 5 they lost on Thursday night 3-2. Through the first four games, the Oilers, led by McDavid and Draisaitl, had more scoring chances and in general controlled play. Weaker goaltending hurt. The Canucks had been a little lucky the series was tied.

In Game 5, the Oilers again started strong, springing to a 2-1 lead, but in the second period their gusto inexplicably vanished as the Canucks seized control. The Oilers had a refrain after the loss, that the better team won the game. McDavid said it Thursday night in the locker room. Draisaitl and Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch said the same Friday morning at the team’s hotel before flying home.

“Just a little lethargic” was how Knoblauch described some of Edmonton’s effort in the loss.

Bad timing, perhaps. In NHL playoff history, teams that win Game 5 in a tied series go on to win the series four out of five times. Much was made before this series about the Oilers’ playoff experience – this was going to be the year when losing turned into winning – and the Canucks’ lack of postseason experience. The Oilers have been in a variation of this position three times the past two playoffs.

Last year, the likeliest Game 5 outcome held twice. In the first round, Edmonton was tied 2-2 with the Los Angeles Kings and the Oilers won Games 5 and 6. In the second round, Edmonton was tied 2-2 with Vegas and the Golden Knights won Games 5 and 6.

Two years ago, however, the Oilers were tied 2-2 against the Kings in the first round and the Kings won Game 5 but the Oilers fought back to win Games 6 and 7. That was the spring McDavid led the Oilers to the conference final, where they were swept by Colorado.

“All these series, they all write their own history and their own story,” Draisaitl said Friday. “There’s not much to talk about, you know? We’ve got to go home and win one hockey game.”

This is McDavid’s team, more than ever. He’s in his ninth season, at 27. Last summer, his agent, Jeff Jackson, was installed as Edmonton’s CEO of hockey operations. After a disastrous start to the season, Jay Woodcroft was fired as coach and replaced by Knoblauch. He knew McDavid well, having coached him several seasons as a teenager in major junior.

On Thursday night, asked about his approach to Game 6, McDavid was succinct: “Trying to win a hockey game – trying to win a game.”

Edmonton is in a precarious position. Journeyman goalie Calvin Pickard, 32, has started the past two games, his first playoff starts. He won one, lost one, and played well in both. Knoblauch is mulling changes for Game 6, which include a possible switch in net back to starter Stuart Skinner, who had struggled, as well as mixing up lines and bringing one or two fresh players into the lineup.

The Canucks had looked to be in trouble going into the second round. They beat Nashville in six in the first round but had lost their starting goalie, Vézina finalist Thatcher Demko, to injury early on. Backup Casey DeSmith was then also injured and third-string rookie Arturs Silovs ended up as the starter. The 23-year-old Latvian had played nine NHL games before he was thrust into the playoff spotlight.

But Silovs has played high-stakes hockey before. A year ago, he helped lead Latvia to its first world-championship medal, a bronze.

Canucks captain and Norris finalist defenceman Quinn Hughes, who has one of the best views, said Silovs has been “incredibly impressive.”

“He never looks nervous,” Hughes said Friday at the arena. “He just looks like it’s another game. We can all learn a little bit from him, to be honest.”

Canucks coach Rick Tocchet has said the lack of experience was overhyped and experience could be gained quickly. The Canucks have already won a tight series-clinching Game 6 on the road, 1-0 in Nashville. Tocchet sees a group of players, with a 24-year-old captain, that has built resiliency against doubt in a punch-counterpunch series.

“You can’t let the demons come in – ‘what about this’ or ‘what about that’ or ‘what happens if this happens’ – you can’t think that way,” Tocchet said Friday. “I give [the players] a lot of credit. They’ve been rock solid. It’s been a cocoon in that dressing room.”