Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson makes a statement outside 10 Downing Street in central London on July 7, 2022.JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP/Getty Images
As Boris Johnson defiantly tries to hang on to power for as long as possible, contenders are lining up to replace him as Conservative party leader and British prime minister.
Mr. Johnson announced his resignation as leader on Thursday, but insisted that he planned to stay on for as long as possible. “I have today appointed a cabinet to serve – as I will – until a new leader is in place,” he said.
True to his word, Mr. Johnson spent part of Friday holding cabinet meetings and making ministerial appointments. But a growing number of Tories called for him to turn over the reins of government to an interim leader. Electing a replacement could take the rest of the summer, and many Conservatives don’t believe it’s appropriate for Mr. Johnson to remain in office that long.
British Conservative leadership candidates turn against each other as race heats up
Allowing Mr. Johnson to remain in office for up to three months “having lost the support of his cabinet, his government and his parliamentary party, is unwise and maybe unsustainable,” former Conservative prime minister John Major said in a letter to Conservative members of Parliament. “In such a circumstance the prime minister maintains the power of patronage and, of even greater concern, the power to make decisions which will affect the lives of those within all four nations of the United Kingdom and further afield.”
The opposition Labour Party plans to introduce a motion of non-confidence in the government next week if “the Conservatives don’t get their act together and get rid of Boris Johnson,” said deputy leader Angela Rayner. If adopted, it would result in a general election. Given the Conservative’s large majority in the House of Commons, however, the motion is unlikely to pass.
Nonetheless, the turmoil among Conservatives has been a boost to Labour, which now has a healthy lead in some opinion polls. The party’s leader, Sir Keir Starmer, also got a lift on Friday when Durham Police dropped an investigation into allegations that he and another senior party figure broke COVID-19 regulations in 2021.
Sir Keir had said that he would resign if police found that he’d done something wrong, but police concluded that there was no substance to the allegations. “This is a very good week for the Labour Party and my challenge to the Tories is not who is your next leader going to be, but give us the change we really need. Let’s have a general election, let’s have a change of government, a fresh start for our country,” Sir Keir said Friday.
The race to succeed Mr. Johnson is expected to heat up next week when officials announce a timetable for the contest. Tory MPs will first vote among themselves and select two candidates. Party members will then choose the winner.
The past two Conservative leadership races were largely uneventful because there were clear front runners: Theresa May in 2016 and Mr. Johnson in 2019. Ms. May was such an overwhelming favourite that no one ran against her, while Mr. Johnson won two-thirds of the membership votes.
This time the contest is wide open, but a few candidates do stand better odds. (Each candidate’s likelihood of winning the leadership was sourced from British oddsmakers as of July 8.)
Who will replace Boris Johnson?
Ben Wallace
Betting odds: 3/1
The Defence Secretary has scored well among Conservative members, which may have something to do with the war in Ukraine and Britain’s strong backing of the Ukrainian government. A snap poll of 716 party members by YouGov put Mr. Wallace, 52, well in front of other likely candidates. He’s also a former soldier who has been the MP for Wyre and Preston North, north of Manchester, since 2010. He attended the Royal Military Academy and attained the rank of captain in the Scots Guard, a regiment in the British army. He entered politics in 1999 as a member of the Scottish Parliament and while he has a limited public profile, he’ll be seen by many members as a steady hand after years of controversy under Mr. Johnson.
Rishi Sunak
Betting odds: 4.5/1
Mr. Sunak, 42, was considered a rising star when he was appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2020. He has degrees from Oxford University and Stanford, and worked at Goldman Sachs and a hedge fund before turning to politics in 2014. He won plaudits early in the pandemic for introducing a number of support programs, but he’s run into trouble lately. He and Mr. Johnson were among 83 officials who each had to pay a £50 (about $77) fine for violating COVID-19 lockdown rules. Mr. Sunak also ran into controversy after his wife, Akshata Murty, who is the daughter of an Indian billionaire, disclosed that she registered as a British resident, which allowed her to save millions in taxes. He launched his campaign on Friday with a slick video highlighting his immigrant background and his devotion to family.
Liz Truss
Betting odds: 9/1
Ms. Truss, 46, has held several cabinet posts since first winning a seat in 2010. She is currently Foreign Secretary and cut short her trip to a Group of Twenty foreign ministers meeting in Indonesia this week to return to London to campaign. An economist by training, Ms. Truss is on the right wing of the party and believes strongly in the free market. Although popular at the grassroots level for her free enterprise views, there have been questions about her commitment to Brexit and whether she would be up to the job of prime minister.
Penny Mordaunt
Betting odds: 5.5/1
She has also held several government posts – including serving as the U.K.’s first female defence secretary – since becoming an MP in 2010. Ms. Mordaunt, 49, has a military background and is a member of the Royal Navy Reserve. She’s considered a moderate, although she was a prominent supporter of Brexit. She’s expected to run as the candidate who can unite all factions of the party.
Jeremy Hunt
Betting odds: 12/1
The former health secretary ran against Mr. Johnson in 2019 but his opposition to Brexit dogged his candidacy and he lost badly. He’s seen as a centrist, and his calm demeanour could be an antidote after Mr. Johnson’s bombast. Mr. Hunt, 55, was also a voice of reason from the Tory backbench throughout the pandemic, often offering constructive criticism of government policy. But his status as a “remainer” will continue to set him back among the Tory faithful, and members will also likely be looking for a fresh face this time.
Sajid Javid
Betting odds: 14/1
Another former health secretary, Mr. Javid is an economist with a penchant for Margaret Thatcher and U.S. author Ayn Rand. First elected in 2010, he has held a number of business-related cabinet posts and served as chancellor of the exchequer in 2019. Mr. Javid, 52, made headlines this week by resigning as health secretary and calling on Mr. Johnson to step down. “Treading the tightrope between loyalty and integrity has become impossible in recent months,” he told the House of Commons. He has run for the leadership twice – in 2016 and 2019 – but both times failed to advance very far.
Nadhim Zahawi
Betting odds: 3/10
He won plaudits for his role as the minister responsible for Britain’s successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout and has also served as education secretary. After a wave of cabinet departures this week, Mr. Johnson appointed Mr. Zahawi, 55, Chancellor of the Exchequer. His backstory could prove popular for party members. Born to a prominent family in Iraq, Mr. Zahawi’s parents had to flee the country when Saddam Hussein rose to power in the 1970s. They headed to Britain, where Mr. Zahawi grew up in Sussex and became a successful businessman.
Others who could join the race include Steve Baker, a pro-Brexit backbencher who has strong grassroots support; Michael Gove, a former senior cabinet minister who co-lead the successful Yes campaign in the 2016 Brexit referendum with Mr. Johnson; and Priti Patel, the current Home Secretary who has introduced controversial policies to deport illegal migrants to Rwanda.
Paul Waldie