Low funds could hinder re-election prospects for Quebec New Democrats

They have introduced themselves to constituents who had no idea who they were when they voted for them. They have set up riding associations in places their party previously had no presence. They have learned how to be parliamentarians and local representatives after never having seriously expected to be either.

One thing Quebec's rookie New Democratic MPs have not done much over the past four years, however, is raise money. And as their party tries to hold onto the vast majority of its seats in the province this fall, that could come back to haunt some of them.

During the Orange Crush of 2011, many did not need to spend a dime to get elected. But Thomas Mulcair's party is braced for closer races in the upcoming vote, and ground games matter. A review of their associations' 2014 financial returns, most of which have now been posted online, suggests vulnerable Quebec New Democrats are at risk of being outspent by opponents.

Elsewhere in the country, incumbents of all stripes who are in tight battles will approach or meet the spending limit of about $100,000 a riding. But unless their fundraising has dramatically picked up in 2015, or their party can transfer additional funds to them, some NDP MPs (or stand-ins for those not seeking re-election) will be hard-pressed even to come up with about $30,000 – probably a minimal amount for a professional local campaign.

As of this week, Elections Canada had posted the most recent returns for the associations of 50 out of 54 Quebec NDP incumbents. Among them, just seven reported net assets of more than $30,000 at the end of 2014. Only Mr. Mulcair ($62,070.37), his Quebec lieutenant, Alexandre Boulerice ($89,594.12) and maybe former interim leader Nycole Turmel ($50,613.38) appear positioned to spend near the limit.

More than half the incumbents – 27 in total – had less than $20,000. Sixteen of those had less than $15,000, including five (mostly where underperforming MPs have been replaced with new candidates) with less than $10,000.

Fundraising numbers for last year hardly suggest that, after a slow start, most of the MPs are poised to fill their coffers. Twenty-two of their associations collected less than $5,000 in contributions, and most of the rest got less than $10,000.

It is not as though the NDP's opponents are rolling in money in Quebec, either. Members of all parties concede that for a variety of reasons – including a continued expectation that parties will have public funds, as they do provincially, and the lingering effects of federal and provincial scandals – it is just about the toughest place in the country to raise political funds.

In the relatively small number of ridings they hold in Quebec, the Liberals and Conservatives seem to have plenty of money to spend – usually more than $50,000 in each one, according to their 2014 returns, and in the odd case more than $100,000. In many other ridings, they appear to have next to nothing, and in some they are in debt. (The available information on the Liberals' and Tories' Quebec finances is a little less clear than that of the NDP, although even that has a bit of room for confusion. That is because of the way the parties have restructured their associations in response to new riding boundaries.)

The potential worry for the New Democrats is that while their own resources are thinly spread around the province for fights with those two parties and perhaps also the Bloc Québécois, their opponents have a smaller number of Quebec targets. The Liberals' chances are mostly in and around Montreal; the Conservatives' in Quebec City and regions close to it.

The Tories already have significantly more money than the New Democrats in some of those target ridings the NDP won last time, such as Louis-Saint-Laurent and Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup. The Liberals have the odd one like that as well. And each of those parties should be able to transfer money from elsewhere into at least a couple of the places where heavily outspending the NDP could make a difference.

Even where they are not getting outspent, it is safe to say most Quebec New Democrats will be among the rare incumbents who cannot afford to spend much on local advertising and other expenditures to get their message out and identify supporters.

Conceding that fundraising has been a challenge, members of Mr. Mulcair's campaign team point out that all their surprise winners in 2011 could be expected to learn only so much. Of their new tasks, they say, going cap-in-hand to skeptical constituents was among the least appealing. And so despite their party's prodding, many put it off.

The longer they are in office, the more they might take to it. But re-election would be a little easier if, in a province where other parties' organizations have been in shambles, they had done more to leverage what is usually one of incumbency's big advantages.