Reports of McGuinty's last term have been greatly exaggerated

It was supposed to have been the final go-round for a politician who has led his provincial party since midway through the Bill Clinton era.

But for all the assumptions that Dalton McGuinty ran his last election campaign this fall, it's beginning to look like the Ontario Premier might be around for yet another one.

If he had lost on Oct. 6, Mr. McGuinty almost certainly would have stepped down as Liberal Leader. And he previously hinted that, if he won a third term as Premier, he would serve most of it and then hand over the reins to a new Liberal leader. But that was on the assumption that it would be another majority government, giving his party the time to map out a succession.

Having won a minority instead, it's a different story. Sources say that Mr. McGuinty has asked his party to begin preparing for another campaign at any time – and to act on the premise that he will lead the Liberals into it for a fifth straight time.

Considering that it's unlikely the opposition parties will force an election in the next 18 months, that might partly be hot air. But Mr. McGuinty made a convincing case during this fall's campaign that he's got lots of gas left in the tank.

He's only 56 years old, and the years in office have taken no discernible toll on him. He seems, last week's stay-the-course cabinet appointments notwithstanding, to be energized by the new challenge of running a minority government during difficult economic times. And there's little suggestion that he wants to go off and make more money in the private sector.

The bottom line is that Mr. McGuinty enjoys his job, and could be disinclined to voluntarily give it up.

Nor is there much internal pressure for him to do so. There are certainly cabinet ministers with leadership ambitions. (Chris Bentley, named last week as the province's new Energy Minister, is the most obvious example.) But there is no obvious successor growing restless – a Paul Martin, say, to Jean Chrétien.

Had McGuinty won a majority, the unofficial campaign to replace him would finally have kicked up a notch. But ironically, a lesser election result has at least temporarily put a lid on that. While some degree of jockeying is inevitable, it would be unseemly for aspirants to be seen to be putting their own interests ahead of their party's as it clings to power. And the need to be on election standby will leave fundraising dollars and other resources in shorter supply.

None of this is to say that Mr. McGuinty will necessarily seek a fourth term, in a fifth campaign as Liberal Leader. Because of family reasons, or his standing in the polls, or any number of other considerations, he could still decide his time at Queen's Park has run its course. Federal Liberals are beginning to speculate about whether he'll make a run at their party's leadership, although those close to the Premier are quick to pour cold water on that idea.

The truth is, Mr. McGuinty probably hasn't yet figured out himself where his future lies. He and other Liberals, along with the opposition parties, haven't really had time to catch their breaths after the election, and probably won't until the legislature breaks for Christmas. While chief of staff Chris Morley tells The Globe and Mail that he plans to stick around for the long haul, it remains to be seen how much other turnover there will be in the Office of the Premier.

The Premier maintains an extremely small circle of confidantes, so anyone who claims to be inside his head is probably fibbing. That makes Mr. McGuinty eminently capable of surprises, including a sudden departure. But the biggest surprise of all, based on what we were hearing a few months ago, might be if the longest-serving major-party leader in the country sticks around to fight one more battle.