The underlying bones don't favour Michael Ignatieff

Time to tune in the polls. What's in the tea leaves this month?

Abacus Data makes its debut as a national pollster with a November poll suggesting the Conservatives are at 33 per cent, the Liberals at 25 per cent and the New Democrats at 21 per cent. Harris-Decima was in the field at the end of October and suggests national party preference is 33 per cent Conservative, 28 per cent Liberal, and 17 per cent New Democrat.

Meanwhile, Ipsos-Reid (which is being selective about what it releases about its national horserace numbers) offered up some interesting leadership numbers:

Best Prime Minister: Stephen Harper 43 per cent; Jack Layton 33; Michael Ignatieff 24.

Trustworthy: Harper 36 per cent; Layton 35; Ignatieff 20.

Gets things done: Harper 43 per cent; Layton 26; Ignatieff 21.

Open to the ideas of others: Layton 42 per cent; Harper 28; Ignatieff 22.

Has what it takes to lead Canada: Harper 43 per cent; Layton 26; Ignatieff 26.

Best to manage tough economic times: Harper 45 per cent; Layton 24; Ignatieff 24.

Has a hidden agenda: Harper 45 per cent; Ignatieff 37; Layton 14.

What to make of it?

The national horserace numbers, twinned to a lack of fundamental change in the Bloc vote in Quebec, point to the re-election of another multi-party Parliament and to no majority.

The Conservatives and New Democrats are where they were in the 2008 federal election, more or less. The New Democrats are credibly reported to be more competitive in western Canada. The Conservatives are probably doing a little better in Ontario and less well in Quebec - probably netting out roughly evenly in an election.

Ipsos-Reid's leadership numbers also tend to confirm the story painted in many recent polls.

Mr. Harper is benefiting from incumbency and seems to have settled into his role in the minds of Canadians, including a respectable portion of those who have no intention of voting for him. Here the Prime Minister continues to be the long-term beneficiary of Paul Martin's foolish 2004 and 2006 campaigns, which set out to paint Mr. Harper as a demonic figure who would destroy the planet if elected. He would point guns at your face; unload troops on your lawn; and fill the skies with black smoke. Mr. Harper has done none of these things, so far - and so he continues to benefit from the expectations game created for him by his less politically skilful predecessor. Mr. Layton was much wiser to campaign against Mr. Harper on the theme that Mr. Harper is not evil, simply fundamentally wrong on all the important issues that matter to Canadians.

Mr. Layton is the opposition leader Canadians would like to see as prime minister. Here again a seed planted in a campaign is bearing fruit. During the 2008 election campaign Mr. Layton explicitly campaigned asking for a mandate to serve Canada as PM. Some in the media brayed at this - but the idea seems to be growing on Canadians. Canadians see Mr. Layton as equally capable of managing the economy as Mr. Ignatieff, and as more trustworthy and effective. If Canadians elect another minority parliament as they seem set to do, Mr. Layton's perceived openness to the ideas of others will also stand him in good stead.

Mr. Ignatieff continues to fail to thrive in Canadian politics. His strategists point to Jean Chrétien's relatively soft numbers when he was opposition leader, and suggest Mr. Ignatieff's own poor leadership numbers don't speak to his electability. But underlying Mr. Chrétien's profile then and now was a solid record of achievement as a minister in the Trudeau government. Mr. Chrétien had a fundamentally attractive public persona. And Mr. Chrétien benefited from both a fatally-weakened opponent (post-Meech Brian Mulroney) and a divided one (the Conservative coalition was about to be dismantled by the Reform Party and the Bloc Quebecois).

In contrast, the only important decision Mr. Ignatieff has ever made in his life is his decision to keep Stephen Harper in office. Dropping his "g"s now and then does not appear to be improving Mr. Ignatieff's reception or perception among Canadians (it didn't work for Hillary Clinton either). It may be time to conclude that the summer bus tour didn't do the job. Further, as these numbers all show, Mr. Harper has not yet made any fatal mistakes (although he has also failed to grow beyond his base). The Conservatives have not fixed their broken coalition in Quebec, but they have repaired their western Canadian rampart and will not be splitting their Ontario vote. So, so far, Mr. Ignatieff does not have Mr. Chrétien's key attribute: luck.

All of this being so, the underlying bones of federal politics point to continued minority parliaments, and to important roles in the future for Mr. Harper and Mr. Layton. It would seem that people kind of like them.

(A footnote: As if to prove all of this, the Nov. 7 Sunday Star in Toronto repeats the conduct that helped elect Rob Ford mayor of Toronto. This time the transparently political cheap shot targets are Mr. Layton and his wife, MP Olivia Chow. The Star devotes a page to adding up Layton and Chow's boring and typical MPs' constituency staff, office, travel and other expenses, and tries to frame them as some sort of scandal. This has nauseated even some of the Liberals the Star works so hard to serve. Blogger "Bigcityliberal," for example, comments: "Toronto Star's Layton and Chow story truly Seinfeldian... in that it's about nothing. Probably the silliest part of it is how hard author Richard Brennan tries to crank this into a scandal. Oh my! The NDP party leader spends more than your typical MP on travel! And... a $2000 per month Ottawa condo-apartment? The horrors!" Indeed.)