UN summit to endorse Harper initiative

Here's an end-of-week prediction:

When world leaders conclude their discussion of the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in New York this week, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's G8 maternal health initiative will be front-and-centre in the consensus.

Q. How do I know this?

A. I've been reading the international press.

Q. How can I be so sure that maternal health will be at the top of the agenda?

A. Of the eight development goals adopted ten years ago, progress toward reducing maternal mortality by three-quarters (Goal #5) has been the slowest.

Q. Why am I so confident that world leaders will focus on this goal?

A. Foreign aid is never popular - and never less popular than in hard economic times. Besides, governments around the world are broke and have been reneging on their commitments. And the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation - for whom maternal health is a top priority - is still flush with cash.

Q. Will Canada get credit for the outcome of the UN meeting?

A. Be serious for a minute: "Worthwhile Canadian Initiative" is routinely cited as the world's most boring headline.

Q. Will Mr. Harper get some of the credit, in light of his having made maternal health Canada's signature initiative at the G8?

A. Not on your life: with all the egos congregating in New York this week, he'll not get much if any. Watch for the U.K., in particular, to showcase the maternal health initiative. And watch for the British press to report it.

Q. Will abortion feature prominently in the consensus?

A. There'll be nary a mention of the subject.

Q. How do I know this?

A. I've been reading the international press.