Will Macron’s victory slow the advance of right-wing populism in France?

Nik Nanos is The Globe and Mail's pollster and executive chairman of Nanos Research

The 2017 French presidential election was both a nasty piece of work and yielded the largest second-round victory since Jacques Chirac's win 15 years ago. In that sense, it was a big win for democracy in France. But it was a big loss, too.

The margin of victory for Emmanuel Macron was noticeably higher than that of the winners in the last two presidential elections. At last count Sunday evening, French media estimated a Macron advantage over Marine Le Pen at about 34 percentage points.

On the surface, this sounds quite good for those who reject the politics of the far right. The French and those who are transfixed by the populist phenomenon which swept America and the Brexit vote got to collectively breathe a sigh of relief that the Trump contagion did not spread to France. The French presidency is firmly in the hands of a Europhile and Ms. Le Pen, the leader of the National Front, has been rejected by a majority of French voters over the weekend.

Although not a victory for Le Pen and her followers, it is a step forward for the angry populist movement that lashes out at immigrants, Muslims and wants to turn back the clock. It was Marine Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie, who in 2002 lost the second round with only 15 per cent of the vote against Mr. Chirac. Fast-forward fifteen years, and Marine Le Pen bettered her father's results by almost 20 percentage points. An alternative interpretation is that in a campaign where Ms. Le Pen did not perform well and was recognized as losing the presidential debates, one of three French voters still stood with her and her policies.

Lower turnout suggests that a significant proportion of French voters stayed home because they could not stomach voting for either Mr. Macron or Ms. Le Pen. Turnout in the second round of the French presidential elections was in the mid-sixties, down by some estimates by a whopping 15 percentage points from 80 per cent in the 2012 second round.

The first round vote, which narrowed the field to the final two contestants, was a close race, with only five percentage points separating the top four candidates. To put this into context, a swing of one in 20 voters (5 per cent) away from Mr. Macron and he might not have even made it to the second round.

The key point here is that the final outcome conveys a false sense of stability. Mr. Macron's progress through the first round was tenuous. Ms. Le Pen and her populist-anger politics attained a record level of support. Realistically, this battle is not over, as pro-populist forces work to further increase support. Their key decision will be if the next attempt to grab power will be led by Marine Le Pen or someone else.

The collective relief of those worried about the rise of populism should be tinged with caution. They should be worried about creeping populism, marked by incremental gains of the politics of race and religion, and driven by the disenchantment of those who feel economically left behind.

The battle between Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen was personal and nasty at every turn; that is not new to politics. What should be more worrisome is the attempt to disrupt the election through the release of hacked e-mails unflattering to Mr. Macron, reminiscent of the scandal that dogged Hillary Clinton. Forces intent on stirring up disarray in major advanced democracies certainly exist. These social media attacks, which look to advance fake news and influence voters, are perhaps the biggest threat to democracy and legitimate democratic outcomes. It was a testament to the French election authorities that they swiftly sought to suppress the attack and remind the nation that spreading misinformation from hacked e-mails would be considered a criminal offence.

The good news for Mr. Macron is that, on paper, he registered a big win. However, looking at the very tight first-round vote and the lower turnout, that mandate may not be as politically strong as his numeric victory suggests. His biggest challenge will be the ongoing creep of populism – that those who support Le Pen and the policies of the right-wing National Front will be emboldened to continue to build on the gains they have made – even in the face of an overall defeat.