An alignment of sorts with forecasts in sync from West to East

Since 2006, when the C-Suite survey began tracking executive opinion, we have followed two important issues: a boom in the resources sector and suggestions of a possible "decoupling" of Canada's economy from the United States.

A third issue is a by-product of both – the difference in outlook between East and West in Canada. There is a tendency, when U.S. results are poor, to see to weaker forecasts from Ontario executives and relatively better ones from Western Canadian executives.

Through the first two quarters of 2013, however, these trends have receded. Canadian executives expect the U.S. economy to grow at a slightly faster pace than Canada's. A few are very bullish about the United States, something which virtually no-one in the C-Suite is saying for Canada. More fundamentally, the outlook for the U.S. has improved substantially since the debt-ceiling crisis of 2011, when people questioned the Americans' ability to lead. Only one in five in the C-Suite thought the United States was poised for growth at that point.

Meanwhile, it's been a bumpy ride for the resources sector. Having routinely seen executives from resources companies predict stronger growth for their companies than others, we now see a small but significant number expecting a retrenching this year, moving the outlook for the sector closer to that in services and manufacturing.

If both trends stabilize, it could mean an alignment of sorts within Canada. Forecasts this quarter, for companies and for the economy generally, are now in sync from West to East. Almost all executives expect their companies to grow – three in 10 expect strong growth. Unlike six months ago, very few are predicting any threat of a serious slowdown for the economy.

Judging by the signals we're seeing, there could be renewed optimism that Canada's economy can fire on all cylinders, with the United States getting closer to a full recovery while we also benefit from long-term initiatives and prospects for the resources sector.

But the lessons of the last several years continue to stress the need to diversify trade and build new markets. In past surveys most of the C-Suite reported they had no emerging-markets strategy or were not in a position to market abroad. Those who have a strategy must ensure they follow through and raise their share of sales from overseas markets.

We will be fortunate if the United States helps pick up the Canadian economy, and if the U.S. can meet or exceed expectations in the next couple years. If it doesn't, we cannot assume that our current economy will sustain all regions or sectors evenly.

David Herle is principal and Alex Swann is vice-president of Gandalf Group.