Think of the Quebec economy, and the traditional drivers are energy, forestry and manufacturing. But there's a new engine in Quebec – mining – and it's reshaping the economy of both the province, and the country.
Investment in the province's mining industry is expected to reach $4.4-billion this year, up 62 per cent from 2011. That's nearly equal to the capital that will be poured into manufacturing ($5-billion), a remarkable 27 per cent of all business investment in the province and represents half of all mining investment in the country, according to a National Bank of Canada analysis of recent Statistics Canada figures.
"That's never happened before," National Bank of Canada chief economist Stéfane Marion said in an interview. "It's a huge growth driver for the province this year, and in the future."
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It's not the only first. Quebec will lead the country in mining investment this year, outpacing Ontario, Mr. Marion said.
Mining investment is expected to hit $3.7-billion in Ontario, $2.8-billion in B.C. and $500-million in Alberta.
For Quebec, the money pouring into dozens of iron ore, gold, copper and other mining projects could add a full percentage to GDP this year and cause an unexpected boost in royalty revenue for the cash-strapped government. It will also have spinoff benefits for Montreal-area manufacturers, who will help supply mining-related equipment.
But Mr. Marion said there are broader implications. The Quebec economy is starting to look a lot more like the booming resource-rich provinces of the West.
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"This is a material change in the industrial structure of Quebec," Ms. Marion said. "It brings the interests of Western Canada and Quebec into line. It's not just a pure Western Canada story now. It's spreading to Eastern Canada."
Quebec is also positioning itself to capitalize on the growing resource appetite in China and other fast-growing emerging economies, he said.
And the good news: The mining boom is just getting started as Quebec plots its 25-year "Plan Nord" strategy.