The latest: Pierre Poilievre wins Conservative leadership race
Conservative party faithful are gathered in downtown Ottawa, where by the end of the evening, they will meet their new leader.
More than 1,000 people were expected to attend the unveiling of the party’s leadership election results, which is happening under a more sombre atmosphere because of the Queen’s recent death.
That means whichever of the five candidates vying to replace former leader Erin O’Toole won’t be greeted by a blast of confetti as was planned initially. Instrumental Christian hymns also played in the hall before the event began and the event opened with a moment of silence of for the Queen.
The mood among campaign staff, party brass and other members who buzzed about the convention hall waiting for the program to begin was one of, “finally.”
Not only has race lasted for seven months, but it’s the party’s third in the past six years.
It’s hoping to change that with its next leader, who Conservatives are desperate to see return the party to government after being shut out by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals for the past three elections.
Expectations are high for veteran Conservative Pierre Poilievre, who ran a populist campaign around the theme of “freedom” in his bid to score the top prize.
Can he pull off a rare first-ballot win?
“I think he can,” said Garry Keller, a former Conservative staffer whose roles included working as chief of staff to Rona Ambrose, who served as the party’s interim leader after Prime Minister Stephen Harper stepped down.
Poilievre would be the first to do it since Harper, who won on the first ballot in 2004 in the party’s first leadership race.
Such a win would be good for party unity because it signals a clear direction, Keller said. “It’s all united behind one person.”
The party is using a points system to count up the more than 400,000 votes that were cast before Tuesday’s ballot deadline.
Candidates are assigned points based on what share of the vote they receive in each of Canada’s 338 electoral ridings. Whoever scores more than 50 per cent of the points wins.
It also uses a ranked ballot, meaning members mark their preferred choice for leader from first to last.
If there’s no clear winner the first time ballots are counted, the candidate who receives the least support is eliminated, and the votes they received from supporters who picked them first transfer to the candidates those members picked second.
In 2020, it took three rounds of counting for O’Toole to cross the winning threshold.
In 2017′s crowded race, Andrew Scheer only eked out a victory against presumed front-runner Maxime Bernier on the 13th ballot.
But things are different now.
Poilievre is facing off against only four other candidates, and throughout the race has been attracting crowds by the thousands with his stances against inflation, COVID-19 vaccine mandates and all things Trudeau.
He used that momentum to sell a whopping 300,000 memberships, his campaign said, and leveraged a social media following he spent years amassing to reach supporters and collect data.
Out of the party’s 118 other members of Parliament, 62 are backing him.
In recent weeks, Poilievre’s campaign has turned its focus to aggressively making sure that those who signed up to vote for him actually cast their ballots — part of an overall ethos of not taking anything for granted.
If they ever needed lessons on the importance of that, they needed only look at the fortunes of Bernier in 2017 and Peter MacKay in 2020, who were presumed front-runners when they ran for leader but lost in the end.
One of the key battlegrounds in this year’s contest is Quebec, where Poilievre’s main competition is the province’s former premier, Jean Charest.
Charest spent the contest reintroducing himself to a new generation of Conservatives after being out of federal politics for more than 20 years and leaving provincial office in 2012.
Charest’s campaign has said it believes he has enough support in Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada to secure the points he needs to win, a victory the campaign admits would be narrow.
Another factor the Charest campaign is counting on is support from the party members brought in by another centrist candidate, Patrick Brown. The Brampton, Ont., mayor was disqualified from the race in July over an allegation that he may have contravened federal election law, which he has denied.
Brown had focused on courting support in the country’s immigrant communities, a strategy Charest has picked up since the ouster.
With Brown’s name still on the ballot, any voters who ranked him first will see their votes counted toward their second-choice picks.
Keller said he’s also curious to see how Leslyn Lewis performs. The MP surprised many with her strong showing when she entered the 2020 contest as a relative unknown, then ended up placing third behind O’Toole and winning Saskatchewan.
Like in the last race, she’s benefiting from support in the party’s well-mobilized social Conservative wing, in part because of her opposition to abortion.
But Keller said with fewer candidates in the contest, she and Poilievre are fishing from the same pond. They have overlapping appeal, for different reasons.
“There’s a group of people who might say, ‘I really like Leslyn Lewis,”’ he said. “‘I like what she stands for. But I really love Pierre Poilievre. So she’s gonna be my second choice, but Pierre’s my first choice.”'
Rural Ontario MP Scott Aitchison and former Ontario legislator Roman Baber are the race’s two newest faces.
Aitchison, a former small-town mayor who was first elected as an MP in 2019, campaigned on the theme of restoring decency in politics and called out conspiracy theories that have become common in some Conservative circles, such as those around the World Economic Forum and vaccinations against COVID-19.
Baber was best known before the leadership race for getting kicked out of Premier Doug Ford’s caucus after he spoke out against COVID-19 lockdowns in January 2021 — a move he spent the campaign pointing to as evidence that he follows his convictions.