The issue in Toronto in Monday’s election is the spectre of decline

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A spectre hangs over the current election campaign in Toronto – the spectre of decline.

Toronto thrived in the first two decades of the 21st century. Hundreds of thousands of people from all over the world came to live in the city and its suburbs. Scores of condo and office towers sprang up in its thriving downtown, transforming the skyline. Its financial and tech sectors boomed. Housing prices soared. Toronto overtook Chicago to become North America’s fourth largest city.

Now signs of trouble are everywhere. Residents complain about busted, overflowing trash bins, poorly tended parks, constant transit delays. Gil Penalosa, the only important rival for Mayor John Tory in Monday’s election, says that “people feel the city is falling apart.”

The pandemic overwhelmed the city’s already tight finances, making it harder to pay for all the upkeep and upgrades a big city needs. City hall’s own figures show that the “state-of-good-repair” backlog for roads, parks and transit will rise to more than $13-billion over the next decade.

With inflation taking root, rents climbing and mortgage rates going up, Toronto is becoming so expensive that many people are moving out, decamping to smaller Ontario centres or even other provinces. Seizing the opportunity, Alberta bought subway-station ads encouraging Torontonians to take advantage of the cheaper housing and wide-open spaces of the West.

Even big, successful cities can go into decline. Toronto has a vivid reminder of that truth just across the U.S. border in Buffalo, N.Y., the steelmaking and meat packing hub that hit the skids in the Great Depression and never really recovered. A few hours down the highway lies a still more dramatic example: Detroit.

A quick look at the headlines shows how even whole nations can go into reverse. Only a few years ago Britain was riding high, its politics moderate, its place in Europe secure, its capital a world financial hub. Look at it now.

No one really thinks Toronto is headed for that sort of turmoil. The city on the lake still has a lot going for it. Canada’s high immigration targets mean that Greater Toronto will continue to receive a stream of ambitious, talented newcomers that refresh and reinvigorate the city. Its diversified economy has bounced back well from the trials of the pandemic. It has first-rate hospitals, universities, colleges and cultural institutions.

Some of those who fled to Barrie, Brantford or Bala are already finding they miss the buzz of the big city and moving back. The city’s restaurants, bars and theatres are full again.

With federal and provincial help, the city is building out its long-underfunded transit network. Billions are going into new light-rail and subway lines. The provincial government is making the urban housing crisis a priority and bringing in new measures to break down the many barriers to getting houses built. Whole swaths of land to the east of the city centre are being opened up for redevelopment. The city’s waterfront is finally beginning to live up to its potential as a place to live, work and play.

So Toronto is not doomed to decline. If it tends to its wounds and builds on its strengths, its future remains bright. But the warning signs are real. So is the simmering frustration of its residents. They may be disengaged from local politics. Many will stay away from the polls altogether on Monday. This sleepy election campaign has given them very little to sink their teeth into. But they care about the city and want those who run it to do a lot better.

They want tidier streets and fewer traffic snarls. They want city councillors who think about the city’s greater good and don’t bow to every noisy neighbourhood group. They want a mayor who leads rather than merely manages.

The energetic Mr. Penalosa, a veteran urban consultant, says he would take the city’s residents from “hopeless to hopeful.” As a political outsider whose name is not widely known, he probably will not get the chance.

But he is onto something. Many Torontonians are feeling down about their city. Their confidence in its prospects is wavering. They are crying out for someone who will put the spring back in its step. They are crying out for leadership.